Forbes: Joan Lappin Positive On Sirius

Adviser Soapbox
Sirius Is Sucking A Lot Less
Joan E. Lappin, Gramercy Capital Management 05.31.07, 6:10 PM ET, Forbes

Uncertainty surrounding the deal to merge XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio has put both stocks on the discard pile and pushed them to new lows, but after bottoming on May 16 at $2.66, Sirius has been on a tear. Very funny, you might say, since just about everyone who owns it is underwater, but Sirius is up almost 10% since mid-May, while the Dow has been about flat. We think Sirius is worth a lot more than its present price for those who are patient.
The naysayers have always thought that satellite radio is not a valid business model. I view it more like any utility. Once you launch the satellites, it doesn’t cost much more to service added customers beyond billing and customer care. Unlike the cable industry, in this one you don’t even have to do a "truck roll" and send a technician to install it.
If you can imagine such an absurdity, Goldman Sachs recently, with Sirius at $2.86, put out a 25-page sell recommendation suggesting 20% risk in the stock, or another 50 cents to the downside. Perhaps they are trying to appeal to an audience of short sellers, but aren’t they a little late? The short position in Sirius, usually only about a two-day trading supply, fell to its lowest level in a long time in the most recent May Nasdaq report.
Even as investors don’t find the satellite business model appealing, the car companies definitely do. They have concluded that factory installed satellite radio is an attractive selling point to new buyers, particularly when included in the price of the vehicle. Sirius Satellite Radio has been working hard with some success with Ford Motor to test bundle a three-year package into some models when purchased. Kia (Sirius) and Hyundai (XM) are building satellite radios into 100% of the cars they will manufacture for the 2009 model year, which will begin mid-year 2008. High-end brands such as Mercedes (Sirius) are equipping more than 80% of their production with factory-installed units. Chrysler (Sirius) will be moving from satellite radios in 36% of all cars manufactured in 2006 to 42% of new vehicle production in 2007. Probably due to its other distractions, General Motors has been slow to accelerate the number of XM radios it builds into cars, but now, in its seventh model year, it too will feature them in nearly 44% of vehicles this year.
XM Satellite Radio has stated a goal of adding 1.1 million to 1.3 million net new subscribers in 2007, and Sirius expects to add about 2 million net subs this year. If those numbers turn out to be correct, XM will end this year with 9 million subs and Sirius will approach 8 million for a combined total of 17 million users, compared with 14 million at the end of last year. Once the industry reaches 20 million users, you have a viable base for selling national ads. Consider that there are more than 230 million cars on the road in the U.S. That leaves a lot of cars to penetrate in the future, whether or not the merger is allowed to proceed...read more: here

5/31/2007 09:20:00 PM

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League Of Rural Voters Supports SIRI+XMSR Merger

SIRIUS/XM Satellite Radio Merger Critical to Growth and Development of Rural Communities
League of Rural Voters Adds Its Voice and Support for Sirius/XM Satellite Radio Merger

MINNEAPOLIS, May 31, 2007 /PRNewswire via COMTEX

The League of Rural Voters urged the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to approve the merger.......

Satellite Standard Group has merged with SiriusBuzz. You can catch the balance of this article, and future articles by visiting www.siriusbuzz.com. You can also participate in message board forums at Sirius Buzz

5/31/2007 08:09:00 AM

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NAB Gets Even More Desperate: Hires Law Firm To Prepare Report Against Merger

Law Firm Says Sirius/XM Merger Would Violate Antitrust Law
via www.radioink.com, May 31

A report prepared by the NAB-retained law firm of Crowell & Moring that has been sent to lawmakers and filed with the FCC characterizes the proposed satellite radio merger of XM and Sirius as "clearly anticompetitive." The report reads, in part: "The proposed merger would replace this duopoly market structure, set up specifically by the FCC to ensure at least some level of price and service competition, with a monopolist in the downstream subscription market that is unrestrained in its ability to harm competition. There simply is no ‘fix’ that will restore the competitive structure of this marketplace, and thus DOJ should challenge the transaction to preserve existing and future competition."...read more: here

5/31/2007 07:42:00 AM

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CBS Buys Internet Radio Site

CBS Buys Last.fm for $280 Million
By KEVIN KINGSBURY, May 31, 2007; Page B5, Wall Street Journal

CBS Corp. acquired social-networking Web site Last.fm Ltd. for $280 million, delving further into the music business where it was once one of the major players.
Last.fm, founded in 2002, claims it has more than 15 million active users in more than 200 countries and is focused on music.
The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported two weeks ago that CBS was working on agreements with Last.fm and fellow social-networking site Facebook Inc. to allow users to post CBS video clips to their profiles. (See related article1.)
"Last.fm is one of the most well-established, fastest-growing online community networks out there," said CBS President and Chief Executive Leslie Moonves in a statement. He added the site's "demographics also play perfectly to CBS's goal to attract younger viewers and listeners across our businesses."
Last.fm's team -- including founders Felix Miller, Martin Stiksel and Richard Jones -- will continue to independently run the site.
"Part of our interactive strategy has been to build communities around all of our properties," said Mr. Moonves. "CBS Radio has given us a powerful way to create such communities for decades, and it continues to do so. With Last.fm we're adding a next-generation platform to allow audiences to communicate with us and each other as never before."
CBS said in December it would launch a new CBS Records label, reviving a name associated for several decades with such artists as Michael Jackson, The Eagles, Barbara Streisand and Earth, Wind & Fire...read more: here

5/31/2007 07:37:00 AM

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Auto Contracts To Drive Satellite Radio

Automotive contracts seen driving satellite radio
Wed May 30, 2007 2:38 PM ET, By Sue Zeidler, (Reuters)

Whether the two largest satellite radio companies merge or not, the future of the industry is riding on automotive contracts at a time when competition for in-car entertainment is increasing.
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.'s bid to buy XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. for $4 billion would help the two companies cut losses, compete more effectively and turn profits faster, the companies have said. But they have also stipulated they don't need the deal to survive since they already have contracts in place to install millions of radios in new cars in coming years.
To date, neither satellite radio provider has yet made a profit. The companies have borrowed heavily to launch their businesses and establish costly contracts with celebrity personalities such as Oprah Winfrey and Martha Stewart, and sports franchises like Major League Baseball.
On a stand-alone basis, analysts project that Sirius will not post a profit until 2010 and XM not until 2011, according to average forecasts from Reuters Estimates....read more: here

5/31/2007 07:27:00 AM

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Dodging Bullets: thestreet.com On Merger

Stalled Merger Is Slamming Sirius
By Scott Moritz, Senior Writer, thestreet.com, 5/31/2007 6:05 AM

The merger of XM (XMSR) and Sirius (SIRI) still hasn't reached the launch pad.
It seems the satellite-radio hookup remains earthbound as lobbyists and power brokers face off.
It has been 70 days since the two companies have filed their intentions with federal regulators -- yet the merger hasn't even passed the preliminary review process.
The delay means that the Federal Communication Commissions has yet to start its 180-day merger-review clock.
"This constitutes the longest application-to-clock delay in FCC history," David Trout of M&A Researcher says in a report Wednesday. "There is simply no way to view the delay in a positive light."
Indeed, a look at some other recent deals in the tech sector shows that none took as long as the XM-Sirius proposal to get its regulatory clock started.
The combination of the nation's only two pay-radio providers poses a difficult case for regulators. To sign off, they must be persuaded that consumers would get good prices and better selection with one broadcaster...read more: here

5/31/2007 07:23:00 AM

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XMSR: Form 4 SEC Fillings

XMSR files several Form 4's (Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities) with the SEC

5/31/2007 06:23:00 AM

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The Meaning Of "Competition Alert"

After Sirius and XM announced their agreement to merge, several groups came out against the combination claiming that it was "anti-competitive". I have created the headline "competition alert", which I use everytime a competing service is highlighted in the news. Here is a list of the mentions over the past few months. I'm sure the FCC and DOJ staff members read the papers, too!

5/30/2007 10:00:00 PM

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Bridge Ratings, Updated May 30th

The Bridge Ratings Q2 - Mid-Term 2007 Satellite Radio Update
Wednesday May 30, 2007

Demand for Satellite Radio Soft but Consistent
Bridge Ratings continues to interview current and potential consumers of satellite radio. Interviews are conducted via random phone calls and in-store intercept at satellite radio kiosks and departments. With the growing influence of new car installations, this quarter we've added interviews at car dealerships.
Both satellite companies released their first quarter subscriber numbers in April with a net total of 760,000 new subscribers since the start of the year bringing the sector total to 14.5 million. This number falls short of the first quarter target of 780,000 Bridge Ratings' estimated would be needed in order for the full year subscriber count to reach 3.9 million which is shy of the satcasters projections for 2007 sign-ups. 2007 totals will need to reach 1.56 million by July 1 in order for the pacing to be on-target.
At this time, though, though we see a consistent interest in satellite radio, "brand stimulation" remains soft with Sirius maintaining its significant brand lead...read more: here

5/30/2007 07:34:00 PM

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Mel To Keynote At Lehman Global Wireless Conference

Mel Karmazin to Keynote at The Lehman Brothers Worldwide Wireless Conference
NEW YORK, May 30, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX

SIRIUS Satellite Radio today announced that Mel Karmazin, its Chief Executive Officer, is expected to participate in a keynote discussion at the Lehman Brothers Worldwide Wireless Conference in New York, NY on Thursday, May 31, 2007 at approximately 4:30 pm ET...read more: here

5/30/2007 11:14:00 AM

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Competition Alert: Slacker Desktop Radio Available, Portable and Car Coming Soon

Slacker Desktop Radio now available
via www.orbitcast.com, May 30

Part two of Slacker's three prong attack on digital radio has just arrived: Slacker Desktop Radio.
Slacker Desktop Radio goes a step further than its Web-based counterpart, with features like a mini-player, visualizations, larger album art and playlists. Eventually, when the Slacker Portable gets released, Slacker Desktop Radio will sync your custom channels to the device.
The Slacker Portable, Slacker Desktop Radio, and Slacker web-app will all work together, updating each other with your custom preferences as you move from one to the other...read more: here

5/30/2007 11:14:00 AM

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Auto Makers Expect Rise In Sales Due To High Gas Prices

Ford Predicts Rise in Retail Sales
Wednesday May 30, 1:48 am ET, AP

Ford Official Predicts Rise in Retail Sales, Fueled by Crossovers


A Ford Motor Co. official predicts that his company's overall U.S. sales will drop in May, but its retail sales to individual buyers will show a year-over-year monthly increase for the first time since October of 2006.ADVERTISEMENT George Pipas, Ford's top sales analyst, told reporters Tuesday that the increase, which includes only the Ford, Lincoln and Mercury brands, would be fueled largely by rising sales of new crossover vehicles..........

WHAT IS ALL THE BUZZ ABOUT????? SSG Has Merged With Siris Buzz. You can catch the rest of this article and future articles by visiting www.siriusbuzz.com

5/30/2007 11:14:00 AM

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Sony Supports HD Radio (Reminiscent of Betamax, Perhaps Blu-Ray)

Toshiba takes European lead over Sony in HD
von Maija Palmer, Financial Times

The high-definition format war being waged by HD-DVD and Blu-Ray is reminiscent of the battle between VHS and Betamax. Aficionados of European cinema who would like to watch films such as Roberto Benigni's award-winning The Tiger and the Snow in high definition, may, for the time being at least, have to buy a HD-DVD player.......

WHAT IS ALL THE BUZZ ABOUT????? SSG Has Merged With Siris Buzz. You can catch the rest of this article and future articles by visiting www.siriusbuzz.com.

5/30/2007 07:18:00 AM

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Leveling The Royalty "Playing Field" (Those Who Live In Glass Houses Shouldn't Throw Stones!)

Radio Royalty Redux
Louis Hau, 05.30.07, Forbes

A war is brewing over the royalties that the recording industry wants U.S. radio stations to pay for the right to play music. And though the fight has gone nowhere in the past, changes in the entertainment world could alter the outcome this time.

If You were not aware, SSG has now merged with SiriusBuzz. You can read the rest of this article, and future articles by going to www.siriusbuzz.com

5/30/2007 07:11:00 AM

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Competion or Not

May 29, 2007
Tyler Savery

If you ask the NAB about whether or not satellite radio is competition you will get a long and drawn out answer that may leave you more confused than when you started. according to the NAB, competition is a one way proposition. They feel that satellite radio competes with terrestrial, but that terrestrial does not compete with satellite.

Now, do yourself a favor and explore the Ibiquity website and look deeper into HD Radio. Seems that they acknowledge competition in the very description of what HD radio is. Note that in two locations they speak specifically about subscriptions, and "free radio"

You can click the image to enlarge, and you will see clearly that they are referring to satellite radio. HMMMMMM.....competition.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM, No Position Ibiquity

5/29/2007 09:13:00 PM

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Bloomberg On Short Interest

Short Sales Break Record on NYSE; Market Bulls Get More Bullish
By Daniel Hauck and Michael Tsang, May 29 (Bloomberg)

Short sellers are betting against U.S. stocks like never before as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index approaches an all-time high. That's making some of the biggest bulls even more optimistic.
``What the short seller appears to be doing is doubling down,'' said Kenneth Fisher, who oversees about $40 billion as chairman of Fisher Investments in Woodside, California. ``You love to see it, because if you believe there is a basic driver to the bull market, they're going to get run over.''
The amount of shorting -- where traders sell borrowed stocks expecting to buy them back after prices fall -- jumped to 3.1 percent of the total shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange this month. That's the highest since at least 1931, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC, a research firm in Mamaroneck, New York.
The wagers represent billions of dollars that could be invested in equities if short sellers close their positions. The bears also reassure fund managers who get skittish when few traders anticipate the possibility of a stock market decline...read more: here

5/29/2007 11:21:00 AM

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It's Not Just XM+SIRI: Google & DoubleClick Get A Second Request

FTC Will Conduct Antitrust Review Of Google-DoubleClick Deal
By KEVIN J. DELANEY May 29, 2007, Wall Street Journal

The Federal Trade Commission will conduct the government antitrust review of Google Inc.'s proposed $3.1 billion purchase of Internet advertising-services company DoubleClick Inc., according to a person familiar with the matter.
The FTC Friday made a so-called "second request" of Google, based in Mountain View, Calif., for additional information to assess any possible overlapping lines of business, this person said.
The issuance of a second request is a signal that the FTC is taking a hard look at the deal, as was expected. It doesn't mean the deal will be blocked; most such reviews end without action...read more: here

5/29/2007 06:05:00 AM

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Competition Alert: Sony To Introduce HD Radio Products

Sony to Debut HD Radio Products in July
Monday May 28, 11:02 pm ET , AP
Sony to Introduce Its First HD Radio Products in July, Joining a Group of Companies

Sony Corp. says it will introduce its first HD Radio products in July, joining the growing group of companies seeking to make the next-generation digital radio technology a standard feature in audio products over the next several years.
HD Radio is new form of digital radio broadcasting that allows radio stations to deliver extra music content on up to four side channels that piggyback on the frequency it already uses. So far, more than 1,200 radio stations nationwide have adopted the technology, according to the HD Digital Radio Alliance, a group of broadcasters promoting the new format...read more: here

5/29/2007 06:00:00 AM

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FCC Comment Scorecard - 5-25 Edition

May 25, 2007

Anti-Merger Camp Picks up 2 points

Since the last report 11 new comments have been filed bringing the total to date to 607.

The events of today see the Pro Merger in front by 10 points.

PRO MERGER – 53%

ANTI MERGER – 43%

NOT APPLICABLE – 4%

If you are interested in filing your opinion on the merger, you can do so by clicking the link in the right sidebar of this site. Readers should also note that ALL comments filed with the FCC become part of the docket and record.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/25/2007 10:47:00 PM

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Memorial Day Weekend

May 25, 2007
Tyler Savery

As a United States veteran who has been deployed, Memorial Day carries a special place for me. No matter what your political stance, or your view of the War in Iraq, please give consideration to thanking a member of our armed forces at some point over this weekend. Take a moment to watch these videos, and a moment to reflect on how great it is to have a country such as ours.

5/25/2007 02:47:00 PM

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Nancy Sinatra Gets Sirius

May 25, 2007
Tyler Savery

PRESS RELEASE

Nancy Sinatra to Launch New Weekly Show Exclusively on Sirius Satellite Radio

"Nancy for Frank" debuting this Sunday on Siriusly Sinatra channel 75


NEW YORK, May 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News) today announced the launch of a new show hosted by Nancy Sinatra exclusively on Siriusly Sinatra, SIRIUS channel 75, on Sunday evenings. The Nancy for Frank show features Nancy playing favorite hits as well as rarely heard recordings by her father and other great artists dedicated to the time and spirit of Frank Sinatra. Nancy for Frank debuts this Sunday, May 27th at 5 pm Eastern.

Nancy Sinatra will play her favorite recordings by Frank Sinatra and other great artists, offering personal insights into the music and its background from her intimate perspective. Nancy has access to rare live concert performances and archived material that has never been released and will present it in this special setting.

"I'm proud and excited to share my father's music with SIRIUS listeners every Sunday," Nancy Sinatra said. "I have some rarities that few people have heard until now. I'm thrilled to play this music as well as traditional favorites from Dad's incredible library of music for this terrific audience."

Nancy for Frank will air Sunday evenings from 5-8 pm and will be rebroadcast on Tuesday afternoons from 2-5 pm and Thursday evenings from 9 pm- 12 midnight (all times Eastern) on SIRIUS, channel 75. Charles Granata, who wrote the acclaimed "Sessions with Sinatra," is co-producing the show with Nancy.

Siriusly Sinatra is the only 24-hour, seven-day-a-week, commercial-free channel, radio broadcast spanning the entire spectrum of Sinatra's career, as well as other artists from the big band, swing and traditional pop genres.

Position - Long Sirius

5/25/2007 01:53:00 PM

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XMSR Annual Shareholder's Meeting Today

XM is holding it's annual shareholder's meeting this morning. Here is the link to the presentation material.

5/25/2007 10:00:00 AM

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Kohl's Conflict of Interest Gains Momentum

You heard it first on SSG: here

BUSTED: Senator Kohl's financial conflict of interest
www.orbitcast.com, May 25th

It seems that everytime a lawmaker comes out in opposition of the Sirius-XM merger, they have some level of financial motivation. First there was Arizona's Mike Hubbard, who ended up owning his own radio station, and now it turns out that Senator Herb Kohl has his own financial stake in a terrestrial radio endeavor.
See, Senator Kohl owns the Milwaukee Bucks - here's the public disclosure (PDF). Now normally that's all fine and dandy....read more: here

5/25/2007 09:52:00 AM

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Short Positions Decline In SDARS

May 25, 2007
Tyler Savery

Many investors look at the short position in an equity in an effort to track sentiment. There are many things to consider when looking at the the short side of an equity, and one of those items is the convertible shares that are in play.

Convertible shares often translate to a short interest. the reason is that the company that receives the convertibles can virtually guarantee a profit by then shorting the stock. Both Sirius and XM have convertible shares in play, and thus, there will naturally be a short position.

When looking at a short position, perhaps the biggest indicator regarding sentiment happens with large shifts. This is what has happened in SDARS over the past month.

As of May 15, 2007 the short interest in SDARS has declined substantially:

SIRIUS

---DATE------Short Interest

May 15, 2007----- 91,292,203
Apr. 13, 2007---- 120,435,858
Mar. 15, 2007---- 123,631,119
Feb. 15, 2007---- 125,133,004
Jan. 12, 2007---- 118,871,835
Dec. 15, 2006---- 141,092,901
Nov. 15, 2006---- 148,301,811
Oct. 13, 2006---- 142,439,294
Sep. 15, 2006---- 129,495,599
Aug. 15, 2006----129,064,719
Jul. 14, 2006 ----110,127,890
Jun. 15, 2006----147,317,349

This represents a decline of 24% on the short side of the house, and a substantial change in position.

XMSR

----Date------Short Interest

May 15, 2007---- 24,460,867
Apr. 13, 2007---- 30,854,117
Mar. 15, 2007---- 31,202,313
Feb. 15, 2007---- 28,936,952
Jan. 12, 2007---- 33,975,151
Dec. 15, 2006---- 33,106,575
Nov. 15, 2006--- 32,034,550
Oct. 13, 2006---- 33,869,653
Sep. 15, 2006---- 30,195,001
Aug. 15, 2006---- 28,795,151
Jul. 14, 2006---- 37,064,358
Jun. 15, 2006---- 39,344,810

For XM this represents a 21% shift down in short interest, and again, a substantial change.

Both Sirius and XM are now at their respective lowest points of short interest in quite some time. Does this "call a bottom" on these stocks? That is tough to tell, but coupled with the ability of these equities to hold up in the face of the O & A news, the satellite issues at XM, and the Senator Kohl's sentiment headlines, investors that are bullish may be seeing positive signals. Only time will tell.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/25/2007 09:04:00 AM

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Sirius Annual Shareholder's Meeting

I attended the Sirius Annual Shareholder's Meeting yesterday, and due to prior commitments (I have a day job), I did not get the opportunity to post my summary until now; however, if I had written it yesterday, it certainly would have been a completely different story.

Sirius hosted a great meeting, 2 hours long, comprehensive content, no spin. Despite the stock price performance, there were no angry shareholders there just to vent. Mel was terrific in his presentation, and the Q&A. He did not miss a beat, had an amazing command of the facts, was articulate in conveying them, and left no stones unturned. I can say that I was inspired.

So now I am sitting here starting to write, and I see the headline takeaways from the meeting: "We Suck Less Than XM", "The Merger Is An Uphill Battle", "Karmazin Doubts Merger". Were these journalists at the same meeting?

In the spirit of open communication, Mel read his audience, and felt like he could infuse a bit of New York humor, thus, the "we suck less" comment. He was candid and honest, and did say, "the merger is an uphill battle", but the sentence included "I am very positive on the prospects". Comments must be put in context.

I am going to try to get a transcript of the meeting to highlight some of the key points (and misinterpretations), and you can decide for yourselves. It is clear that the press has a negative bias, and therein lies the opportunity.

5/25/2007 06:25:00 AM

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Minority Groups Embrace Merger

May 24, 2007
Tyler Savery

Perhaps they feel that terrestrial radio ignores them. Perhaps they feel that terrestrial radio does not care about them. Perhaps they are simply tired of terrestrial radio's empty promises. Perhaps they are frustrated by the NAB seeking to block the creation of Low Powered FM radio stations. Those may all be some of the reasons why so many minority groups have come out in support of the merger, but realistically, it is more likely because satellite radio has embraced minority programming more so than any other audio entertainment medium.

Satellite radio embraced programming diversity early on, and over the years has expanded it. Whether you are black, Hispanic, gay, or Korean, there is programming available for you on satellite radio, and the merger would likely present even more minority programming. The latest to file support is the New York Federation of Hispanic Chambers of Commerce, which advocates on behalf of over 2,000,000 Hispanic owned businesses. you can read their letter to the FCC HERE.

While most of the merger discussion seems to center on the competitive landscape, and dollars, perhaps more important is the services that a merged satellite radio company can deliver to those that have been neglected by terrestrial radio for years. minority groups, and groups representing rural area listeners have all voiced STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE MERGER.

There is a reason why they have done this. Satellite radio has embraced minority programming. satellite radio offers a deeper breadth of programming in rural areas, and satisfies diverse programming needs for minorities. A merger would make even more content available. Imagine a fan of Latin music living in the middle of Nebraska. Do you really think that terrestrial radio will even attempt to meet programming needs for these people? In fact, take the issue of radio and apply it to any area in the center of our country. Imagine living in a small town and having access to only 3 or 4 terrestrial radio stations. satellite radio can fill programming holes in these areas NOW. How long do you think it will take terrestrial radio to fill the needs of these people? They have had over 40 years so far, and have not come to the plate yet!

Think about it. Step away from the share price, the synergies, the dollars, and the definition of competition for a moment. Look at what can happen in short order with a merger. In a Senate Hearing, the tribal leader of a Native American tribe spoke in regards to a desire for programming even with low powered FM. Imagine what can happen with a merged company. There is a strong potential that a Native American radio show could become reality.

Think about educational and personal development programming. Will terrestrial radio fill that void? Likely not. Their interests are in ad dollars, and none of them are willing to risk an investment in such programming. Simply stated, the audiences are likely smaller than would make financial sense. Now consider what can happen on satellite radio. Which medium is more likely to deliver this type of programming to consumers.

Simply stated, there is more at stake here than dollars. yes, dollars drive the bus, but it is satellite radio that will be able to take additional passengers on that bus.

5/24/2007 09:46:00 PM

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NAB Requests Information Through Freedom Of Information Act In What Appears To Be A Smear Campaign

May 24, 2007
Tyler Savery

In March of this year the National Association of Broadcasters sought information from the FCC that Sirius and XM had requested remain private. The issue centers around testing procedures, and communications with the FCC regarding the FM modulator issue of last year.

The stance the NAB is taking is to try to smear XM and Sirius by trying to point out that Sirius and XM have violated FCC Rules and Regulations.

In the letter the NAB states that there is a strong public interest in these materials.

I have read each of the comments filed for the merger, and have yet to find anyone seeking such information....let alone a "strong public interest".

Perhaps rather than casting stones at Sirius and XM for rules violations, the NAB should look within their own membership and address PAYOLA VIOLATIONS.

Clearly the NAB is throwing anything and everything at the wall in hopes that something will stick. Interested Readers can see the NAB's latest letter HERE

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/24/2007 09:30:00 PM

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FCC Comment scorecard - 5-24 edition

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

NO REAL CHANGES

Since the last report 10 new comments have been filed bringing the total to date to 596.

The events of today see the Pro Merger camp still in front by 12 points.

PRO MERGER – 54%

ANTI MERGER – 42%

NOT APPLICABLE – 4%

If you are interested in filing your opinion on the merger, you can do so by clicking the link in the right sidebar of this site. Readers should also note that ALL comments filed with the FCC become part of the docket and record.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/24/2007 09:26:00 PM

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NAB Hires Lobbyist

May 24, 2007
Tyler Savery

Report excerpt from the Associated Press:

NAB Hires Lobbyist for Broadcast Issues

NAB Hires Bluewater to Lobby Federal Government on Proposed Radio Satellite Merger
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The National Association of Broadcasters hired Bluewater Strategies LLC to lobby the federal government on satellite radio broadcasting and other issues, according to a federal lobbying disclosure form filed Wednesday.

The firm said it will lobby on the proposed merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., royalty taxes, advertising restrictions and antitrust issues.
George Nethercutt, the former Republican congressman from Washington, is among those registered to lobby on behalf of the NAB......MORE HERE

5/24/2007 03:01:00 PM

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Morgan Stanley On April 2007 NPD

May 24, 2007
Tyler Savery

Ben Swinburne of Morgan stanley published these comments regarding April 2007 NPD:

NPD Data Shows DARS April Sales down 24% YoY

Quick Comment:

April NPD satellite radio results display a 24% YoY retail category sales decline versus a 33% YoY decline in February and 29% in March. The 24% category decline in April suggests that our estimated 8% category decline forecast for the quarter could prove too optimistic. We would expect actual retail gross adds trends to be better than reported NPD results, because NPD does not include Wal-Mart or direct sales (online channel) which are both growing faster than other traditional retail channels. We also believe 2Q07 sales could benefit from seasonal Father’s Day demand as well as easier YoY comps resulting from retail product interruptions during 2Q and 3Q06. Specifically with XM, its FM modulator issues with the
FCC and the impact on radio supply began in 2Q06. We note that we are above consensus on 2Q07 retail net additions for the industry.

SIRI showed its first material market share improvement in April since December 2006, moving up to 55.5% of reported NPD sales. According to NPD (which excludes direct sales and wholesale retailer data) SIRI and XMSR retail category sales declined roughly 21% and 27%, respectively. XM sales declines in April resulted despite lowering ASPs 17% YoY compared to 2% at SIRI.

Implications:

Continued weaker retail category trends further highlight the importance of OEM adds for subscriber growth for both XM and SIRI. While April NPD data suggests our current forecast could be aggressive, we forecast XM and SIRI retail gross adds declining 4% and 12% in 2Q07 and 9% and 14%, respectively for FY07. Our category forecast assumes SIRI maintains its share advantage throughout the year.

XM’s market share fell back down to the 44-45% level in April after improving ~300 basis points in March. As discussed previously, we believe XM’s March sequential share gains were likely due to the beginning of the Major League Baseball season.

5/24/2007 01:53:00 PM

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Goldman Sachs On Liquidity - Sirius

May 24, 2007
Tyler Savery

Mark Weinkes of Goldman Sachs published a note today note regarding liquidity:

More funding for Sirius? If so, why shouldn’t XM get a better deal?

Source of opportunity

We can envision several scenarios in which Sirius is actually fully funded, but think it is more likely the company returns to the capital markets as early as 2H2007. We believe this would be viewed negatively by investors and push the shares toward our $2.25 target, or another ~20% lower.

Whether operations, Loral, outside partners of XM Satellite help or hinder is an interesting question; Loral’s $100mn vendor financing seems available, but a $100mn compensating balance would tie up the same $100mn in 2007/2008; and XM, upon whose approval additional material financing is contingent, seemingly could get a better deal, or do nothing.

We believe significant expense management in 2007 and 2008 coupled with a return toward historical reported subscriber growth and churn will be key to reverse Sirius’ trend of increasing expenses and position the company to achieve a sustainable cashflow-positive business model.Having finished 2006 with $393mn in cash and pacing to burn $230mn in 2007, we believe Sirius may return to the capital markets in late 2007 orearly 2008 to fund 1H2008 operations as well some or all of the $200mn due on its newsatellite set to launch by 4Q2008.

We believe Sirius’ expense base will continue to rise with the rapidly growing revenue base. Sirius has not issued a target for 2007 EBITDA, as the company has historically, citing uncertainty of merger-related payments. While we respect the uncertainty, it is our understanding that the $4.6 million of merger-related costs incurred in 1Q2007 have been capitalized in “other long-term assets” on its balance sheet in accordance with SFAS No. 141, and as such would not appear to affect EBITDA. Additionally, even assuming $20-$30 million of incremental expense, it seems immaterial relative to an approximate ($530mn) EBITDA loss (pre-ESO) in 2006 and the targeted significant improvement in EBITDA in 2007.

We think it is possible, though challenging, for Sirius to get through 2008 without external financing—if fundamentals improve, but the timing of working capital and the committed payments leads us to believe Sirius’ business model is not likely to generate sufficient cash to cover the planned commitments. Siriushas a $300mn convertible bond offering due in 2009 that, absent a 60%-plus rally in the stock ($4.41 convert with stock), will likely need to be refinanced with additional debt. Further, Sirius has an estimated $200mn due on Sirius-5 by or in 1Q2009 and has stated plans to deploy two new satellites likely to be ready in 2010 and 2012 at an all-in cost of $300mn each. That said, it is possible that Sirius will execute sale-leaseback transactions once the satellites are in orbit and operational.

As a reminder, Sirius current liquidity includes a $100mn line of credit with Loral, and, in 3Q2005 Sirius executed a $500mn (9.625%, due 2013) debt offering and rolled forward its $500mn universal shelf registration. The covenants of the 9.625% notes permit both a subsequent $500mn in financing as well as specific vendor financing.

5/24/2007 01:45:00 PM

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Sirius Annual Meeting Update

May 24, 2007
Tyler Savery

Most SSG readers likely listened to the annual meeting on the internet. If you did, you will have heard an SSG writer in the question and answer session.

Our writer will be publishing a synopsis of the annual meeting later today, so be sure to check back to get her insight into the annual meeting.

5/24/2007 11:55:00 AM

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XM Cuts Deal For BCS National Championship Game

may 24, 2007
Tyler Savery

XM Reaches Multi-Year Agreement With Fox Sports To Be Exclusive Satellite Radio Network of BCS National Championship Game, Other BCS Games

WASHINGTON, May 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- XM Satellite Radio today announced it has reached a multi-year agreement with FOX Sports to become the exclusive satellite radio network of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship Game and other BCS games, beginning January 2008.

The agreement means XM Radio is the satellite radio network for college football fans to tune into the Allstate BCS National Championship Game, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Tostitos Fiesta Bowl and FedEx Orange Bowl.

"College sports is a very important element of our programming strategy, and these games are a must for college football fans," said Eric Logan, executive vice president of programming, XM Satellite Radio. "These games help reinforce XM Radio's position as the ultimate destination for people who love college sports. FOX Sports is a longtime partner of XM, and we're very excited to be working together to bring live coverage of these games to fans across the country."

"FOX Sports is pleased to have reached a multi-year BCS rights agreement with XM, the nation's leading satellite radio service," said FOX Sports COO Larry Jones. "The BCS is a true jewel in the nation's sports landscape, and everything we do in conjunction with it needs to be top-notch."

"The BCS is pleased to have XM as the exclusive satellite home of the Allstate BCS National Championship Game as well as the Allstate Sugar Bowl, Tostitos Fiesta Bowl and the FedEx Orange Bowl. College football fans all over the country now will be able to listen to these BCS games virtually anywhere," said BCS Coordinator Mike Slive.

The games are the latest addition to XM's robust line-up of college sports programming. XM is the official satellite radio network of the college sports conferences ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC. More than eight million subscribers across the U.S. listen to XM on radios for the car, home, and portable use. XM puts a special emphasis on serving "displaced" sports fans who cannot hear their favorite teams on local outlets.

XM is the sports leader in satellite radio with more than 5,000 live sporting events a year. In addition to college sports, XM airs every Major League Baseball game for every team. XM carries NBA games on ESPN Radio, the National Hockey League, the PGA TOUR, and the IndyCar Series, including the 91st Indianapolis 500 this Sunday. XM is also the leading provider of sports talk radio with the 24-hour channels XM Sports Nation, MLB Home Plate, Home Ice, ESPN Radio, ESPNews, and Fox Sports Radio.

Position - Long XM

5/24/2007 10:22:00 AM

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Don Imus and Sirius?

May 24, 2007
Tyler Savery

Asked about whether Don Imus would be coming to Sirius, Mel Karmazin responded that he has had no conversations with him.

Position - Long Sirius

5/24/2007 09:39:00 AM

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Senator Kohl's Comments Defy Logic (Something's Rotten...)

I'm sure that Kohl has more conflicts of interest. I'm just getting started.

Below (in bold) are excerpts from Senator Kohl's statement (The Wall Street Journal) followed by my comments:

"The combined firm would have the ability to raise prices to consumers, who will have no choice but to accept the price increase,"

Obviously, if the combined satellite radio company raised prices, consumers could cancel service as an option, and go back to listening to free AM/FM or HD radio.

The senator said that satellite radio was nationally based, nearly commercial free, of a better audio quality than traditional over-the-air radio, and offers a wider selection of channels. For all these reasons, Sen. Kohl said, he had concluded it was distinct from other forms of radio and audio entertainment.

Because terrestrial radio has poor quality sound (even though they have had access to digital technology for years), limited selection (due to payola restraints) and is loaded with commercials (so the station owners can maximize profits), satellite radio should not be penalized. Terrestrial could improve sound quality by spending to upgrade to HD (which they are aggressively doing, finally), succomb less to payola (which limits selection of content) and pack fewer commercial minutes per hour.

Kohl claims that he can't be bought because he is so rich, but how do you think he got rich?
Logic leads me to believe that there most be some motivation to issue these inaccurate statements against the merger.

So after a bit of research, I found that Herb Kohl is the President/Director of the Milwaukee Bucks Basketball team, and has a significant financial stake. The Bucks buy air time on terrestrial radio. Sirius content includes the NBA. Those listeners having access would more than double with a merger. What would happen if all those WTMJ listeners had an option?

Bucks to sell ads for radio
The Business Journal of Milwaukee - January 19, 2007
The Milwaukee Bucks will assume full responsibility for advertising sales on their radio broadcasts and buy the air time for their games that run on WTMJ-AM (620) beginning with the 2007-2008 season.
The Bucks and WTMJ management began informing their staffs and advertisers of the new arrangement Jan. 17 as part of a new broadcasting contract.
Until now, the Bucks and WTMJ both sold commercial time and sponsorships on the broadcasts and shared the revenue.
WTMJ general manager Jon Schweitzer and Bucks vice president of business operations John Steinmiller declined to comment on the reason for the change or the duration of the new contract.
Steinmiller said the Bucks hope to increase their broadcast revenue under the new deal. link: here

5/24/2007 06:34:00 AM

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CAS

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

It is my hope that you do not mind me taking a moment to bring something to your attention that has nothing to do with Sirius, XM, or any equity.

CAS stands for Childhood Apraxia of Speech. Childhood Apraxia of Speech is a motor speech disorder. For reasons not yet fully understood, children with apraxia of speech have great difficulty planning and producing the precise, highly refined and specific series of movements of the tongue, lips, jaw and palate that are necessary for intelligible speech. Apraxia of speech is sometimes called verbal apraxia, developmental apraxia of speech, or verbal dyspraxia.

Putting it in simple terms, a child with CAS typically does not have the ability to verbally express themselves, but has very normal cognition. The child understands and absorbs information like a sponge, but has no way to express. This can be extremely frustrating for a child. Word form in their mind, but can not come out of their mouth.

Early diagnosis and extensive therapy are two very important keys in treating a child with this condition. CAS is rare, and often a child with CAS is misdiagnosed with Autism. Treatment for CAS differs substantially from Autism, and many children can become even more frustrated.

There are many aspects of CAS treatment that are not covered by insurance. This can put a substantial financial burden on a family. As research progresses with CAS, it is my hope that not only will diagnosis and therapy improve, but that insurance companies will better understand the condition and the required treatments.

Why do I take the time to express this? Because my 3 year old daughter suffers from CAS. She is a wonderful little girl. She is inquisitive, and very intelligent. We use a lot of sign language in my home, and she has a sign language vocabulary of nearly 700 words. Her ability to verbally express herself has improved dramatically over the past 6 months, and we are very proud of her. The sadness however comes through when we see her frustration. She tries so hard to say things, and sometimes simply can't. We are very hopeful that she will continue to progress, and that by the time she is ready for kindergarten that she will be able to do so in a standard classroom with her peers. My daughter is a bundle of joy to our family, and we will do anything for her.

What I am asking of you is that you click on the picture below, watch the brief video, and consider supporting the Childhood Apraxia of Speech Association of North America (CASANA). It has become an organization that I support because I feel that it is important that children need to have a voice, and that children need to be able to express their hopes and dreams. I also feel that it is CASANA is very important for the families that do not have the means to pay for the numerous therapy sessions required to treat CAS. CASANA gives these families needed support, guidance, and direction.

It is my hope that SSG readers would consider supporting CASANA in some way. Please click the image below to learn more.

Thank You for your consideration and support.

5/23/2007 09:41:00 PM

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FCC Comment Scorecard - 5-23 edition

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

STATS REMAIN SAME

Since the last report 15 new comments have been filed bringing the total to date to 586.

The events of today see the Pro Merger camp still in front by 10 points.

PRO MERGER – 54%

ANTI MERGER – 42%

NOT APPLICABLE – 4%

If you are interested in filing your opinion on the merger, you can do so by clicking the link in the right sidebar of this site. Readers should also note that ALL comments filed with the FCC become part of the docket and record.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/23/2007 09:06:00 PM

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A deeper Look at April NPD

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

NPD sales are in, and while the year over year comparisons are down, there are many things to consider.

1. Retail sales will slow with a wider OEM penetration. If you already have a satellite radio in your car, you have no need to buy from retail.

2. The year over year comparison for April shows and improvement over the same comparisons for March, February, and January. There was a point that YOY comparisons were off by over 40%. The fact is that this is the best YOY performance so far this year.

3. April is traditionally a slow retail month. With no new products, and rebates trimmed back, there simply is not a huge push in April.

4. NPD is not capturing the same percentage of the Gross retail number as they were last year. Last year, on average, NPD was capturing between 60% and 70% of the overall sectors GROSS retail number. This year the trend seems to be closer to 50%. This happens in part because retailers that do not participate in NPD such as Wal Mart are penetrating into the SDARS retail market.

What people need to consider along with retail is what is happening in the OEM channel, and other factors. Simply stated, while at face value the NPD data seems to be trending down, it is not necessarily the case, and in point of fact, SDARS overall market penetration seems to be quite healthy.

5/23/2007 06:11:00 PM

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Competition Alert: Pandora Radio Goes Mobile

Uh oh, Pandora Goes Mobile
via www.orbitcast.com, May 23

Pandora has just announced several new features and ways to listen to Pandora's personalized Internet radio. One of the key announcements is their new partnership with Sprint, which marks as Pandora's first mobile deal.
Sprint subscribers can now listen to Pandora on select mobile phones using a pre-installed player or downloaded software. Just point your Sprint browser to Pandora.com to initiate the download...read more: here

5/23/2007 05:03:00 PM

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Senator Kohl Opposes Merger - Old News Resurfaces With Letter

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

According to a published Reuters report by Peter Kaplan, the chairman of the Senate's AntiTrust subcommittee has expressed that the DOJ and FCC oppose the merger on grounds that it would "cause substantial harm to competition and consumers" and that "Such a result should be be unacceptable under antitrust law and as a matter of communication policy"

Kohl letter was forwarded to FCC Chairman Kevin Martin and the Justice Department's antitrust chief, Thomas Barnett.

Those that follow the sector may remember Senator Kohls stances in the hearings held before the subcommittee in March of this year. Kohl did not seem open to the idea of a merger at that time, so this letter should come as little surprise.

In the scheme of things, Representatives and Senators actually have little power with regards to the decision on the merger. However, their comments can carry weight with regulators that do have power in the decision process. This is why it is important to let your voice be heard regarding the merger. Not only to the FCC, but to your Representatives, Senators, and committees that have had hearings on the subject.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/23/2007 03:00:00 PM

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April 2007 NPD Data Released

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

April 2007 Retail sales, as tracked by NPD are in. (CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE)

MARKET SHARE

SIRIUS – 55%

XMSR – 45%

This represents 20 consecutive months that Sirius has maintained a lead at NPD retail. The market share for Sirius improved points 2 over the data from March.

YEAR OVER YEAR

SIRIUS YOY for April is down 20%

XM YOY for April is down 27%

Sector YOY for April is down 24%

SEQUENTIAL MONTH OVER MONTH

SIRIUS – Down 16% from last month

XM – Down 25% from last month

Sector - Down 21% from last month


Position - Long sirius, Long XM

5/23/2007 02:56:00 PM

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NAB Hires Crowell Moring To Develop Anti Merger Analysys

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

In their latest move, the National Association of Broadcasters has hired Crowell Moring to develop analysis against the merger.

The opinion in many ways mirrors those that were already expressed by the NAB's other hired guns. One of the primary focal points seems to be whether or not terrestrial radio is a competitor to SDARS. The hired guns of Crowell Moring quote Karmazin in statements about the subject, but fail to quote Rehr with some of his comments.

In an interesting comment, the analyst states that the the issue is whether SDARS subscribers find terrestrial radio to be a reasonable substitute, but not whether terrestrial radio listeners consider SDARS to be a reasonable substitute. Interesting how one way this thinking is.

In another section the author speaks about how SDARS is complimentary to terrestrial radio, and is a unique market. If this is the case, then why does the NAB carry such angst over the merger? Clearly the NAB sees competition here, and documented statements from Rehr point this out.

It is always interesting to read analysis such as this. They spend half of the time telling you that they are not competitors, and the other half saying that the merger would hurt competition. Seems that the NAB, their stances, and the reports they buy get one thing consistent.........A CONFUSING AND CONVOLUTED MESSAGE.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/23/2007 10:45:00 AM

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XM Offers Credit To Consumers Due To Outage

May 23, 2007

5/23/2007 09:21:00 AM

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XM and GM Announce Pre-Owned Program

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

XM and General Motors Launch Satellite Radio Program for GM Certified Used Vehicles, Cadillac and HUMMER Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles

More Than 115,000 XM-Equipped Certified GM Vehicles Projected To Be Sold in 2007, Increasing to 168,000 for 2008

WASHINGTON, May 23 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- XM (Nasdaq: XMSR - News), the nation's leading satellite radio service, and General Motors Corp. today launched a satellite radio trial program for GM Certified Used Vehicles, Cadillac Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles, and HUMMER Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles, now making the XM trial program available to buyers of both new and certified used models. XM will be available in more than 115,000 of these certified GM vehicles in 2007, and grow to more than 168,000 vehicles in 2008.

Under this program, all GM Certified Used Vehicles (Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, GMC, Oldsmobile models), Cadillac and HUMMER Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles equipped with XM Radio will be available with three trial months of XM service and a waived activation fee. A list of previous model year Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, GMC, Oldsmobile, Cadillac and HUMMER vehicles factory-equipped with XM can be found online HERE

GM is the nation's largest automaker and the industry leader in manufacturer-certified used vehicle sales, representing nearly one-third of the volume of all certified used vehicles sold in the U.S. GM Certified Used Vehicles has been the top-selling certified used vehicle brand each of the last five years, according to Autodata Corp.

"GM is XM's largest automotive partner and XM looks forward to providing premier entertainment to this important and growing segment of pre-owned vehicle customers," said Marisa Uchin, director of remarketing and automotive strategy, XM. "Now customers who purchase a certified GM used vehicle from Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, GMC, Oldsmobile, Cadillac or HUMMER have the opportunity to conveniently experience XM's 170-plus channels of music, talk, sports and entertainment, adding to the exceptional driving experience customers come to expect when purchasing a certified used vehicle."

"Over the last five years, XM has been featured in millions of GM vehicles," said Paul Pejza, manager, GM Certified Used Vehicles. "It is only natural that we launch this program to provide GM Certified Used Vehicles customers an even more compelling value."

GM Certified Used Vehicles, the number-one selling manufacturer-certified brand, are high-quality, reconditioned vehicles, available at participating Buick, Chevrolet, Pontiac and GMC dealers. All models are six years old or newer, have 60,000 miles or less, are reconditioned to stringent GM Certified Used Vehicles standards and must undergo a rigorous 117-point inspection and reconditioning process. All GM Certified Used Vehicles are supported by a fully transferable 5-year, 100,000-mile powertrain limited warranty with no deductible*, three-month/3,000-mile comprehensive bumper-to-bumper warranty, a three-day/150-mile customer satisfaction guarantee, and 24-hour roadside assistance during the term of the warranty. For more information about GM Certified Used Vehicles, visit www.gmcertified.com.

Cadillac Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles come with a 6-year/100,000-mile powertrain limited warranty; and Hummer Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles come with a bumper to bumper 6-year/100,000 mile warranty. For a previously owned HUMMER to become a Certified Pre-Owned Vehicle it is tested to meet HUMMER's stringent standards and undergoes a rigorous 100+ point inspection. In addition, vehicles must be less than 48 months old, driven fewer than 50,000 miles with no serious accidents or body repairs.

Position - Long XM, No Position GM

5/23/2007 09:12:00 AM

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SSG Forums

May 22, 2007
Tyler Savery

SSG is happy to announce a soft launch of an "SSG Forum" on Google Groups. This group page will allow readers to converse and share opinions with each other. At this time membership in the groups is by referral only. Approved readers will have access to the group, and are free to post at their leisure.

The purpose of this group is to give SSG readers an outlet to post and share ideas without the hassle of spammers, and people that carry no real interest in these equities. Access is by referral only so as to allow the group to get established, organized, and for the purpose of selecting good moderators to maintain control. As the group grows, and these moderators are selected, the forum may become open to all readers.

If you are interested in becoming a member, please email satellitestandard@gmail.com

5/22/2007 10:01:00 PM

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AAA and Sirius

May 22, 2007
Tyler Savery

Last evening on my commute home, I tuned into a terrestrial radio station (WEEI AM) to catch a little bit of Red Sox talk. As I was driving I heard an advertisement for AAA. Not unusual in the least.....this is terrestrial radio and advertising is expected.

What was surprising was that Sirius Satellite Radio had a prominent mention in the ad. Listeners were informed about all of the other benefits of being a member of AAA, and Sirius is one of those benefits.

Seems that while the relationship between Sirius and AAA has been known for quite some time, the added bonus of being included in terrestrial radio advertising was not something I expected.

DETAILS

5/22/2007 09:42:00 PM

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FCC Comment Scorecard - 5-22 Edition

May 22, 2007
Tyler Savery

ANTI MERGER CAMP CLOSES GAP

Since the last report 19 new comments have been filed bringing the total to date to 571. Of today’s 19 comments, 3 were for the merger and 16 were against. Once again, most of the comments were form letters that seem to be an effort established by a group of people on either side of the issue.

The events of today see the Pro Merger camp still in front by 10 points.

PRO MERGER – 53%

ANTI MERGER – 43%

NOT APPLICABLE – 4%

If you are interested in filing your opinion on the merger, you can do so by clicking the link in the right sidebar of this site. Readers should also note that ALL comments filed with the FCC become part of the docket and record.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/22/2007 09:24:00 PM

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XM Updates Outage News

May 22, 2007
Tyler Savery

XM Satellite Radio has resumed normal levels of service for customers who experienced outages or significantly degraded service starting yesterday.

The problem occurred during the loading of software to a critical component of the satellite broadcast system, which resulted in a temporary loss of signal from one of the company's satellites.

After you turn on your XM radio, please allow five to ten minutes to reacquire the XM signal.
XM apologizes for any inconvenience this has caused.

Position - Long XM

5/22/2007 01:36:00 PM

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Reports That XM Satellite Issue Resolved

May 22, 2007
Tyler Savery

Reports are coming in that the signal issue with XM has been resolved.

At this point there is no update on the XM website.

We will keep you posted

Position - Long XM

5/22/2007 11:56:00 AM

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Sirius Redundancy

May 22, 2007


Tyler Savery

With XM’s service being down, many are likely wondering if something similar can happen to Sirius. Like anything technical, the answer is not always easy, but here are a few things investors in this sector can think about.

1. The orbits of the satellites of Sirius and XM differ. XM’s satellites sit lower on the horizon, are stationary, and are “always on” (meaning that they are always delivering signal for consumers). Sirius’ three satellites are at a higher elevation and run in an elliptical orbit. Two of the satellites are always delivering service, and a third stops delivering service when its path takes it over south America.

2. Each system has its advantages and disadvantages.

3. XM runs their repeater network off of the XM#3 satellite. A failure in that satellite also creates a failure in the repeater network. This is what has happened. XM fields a larger repeater network than Sirius.

4. Sirius runs their repeaters off of a non-Sirius satellite. They lease “satellite space” from an outside company, and that is where the repeaters get their signal.

5. If XM needs to do updates on a satellite, they must do so while the satellite is “live and operational” (delivering content to the consumer).

6. Sirius’ orbital path basically takes a satellite “off-line” for an 8 hour period each day. This allows maintenance to happen when the satellite is not being used to deliver content to consumers.

7. If Sirius were to lose signal from 1 of the three satellites, the orbits of the remaining 2 satellites could be adjusted to minimize outages or service interruptions.

8. Sirius has a fully paid for spare satellite on the ground. Should there be a satellite failure, they would need to schedule a launch. As a side note, Sirius has already contracted and paid for the launch vehicle as well.

The key in a satellite delivered system is redundancy. Redundancy allows for a hic-up to happen without an interruption, or at least a very limited interruption to the consumer. There are some substantial differences in how Sirius and XM accomplish redundancy.

In a nutshell, the question as to whether a similar situation could impact Sirius rests with what types of problems happen. Having an 8 hour window to maintain a satellite each day has some advantages. They are not trying to work on a “live satellite”. Now, as a disclaimer, I am not a satellite engineer, nor a “rocket scientist”, and encourage those with knowledge relating to the subject to comment. The point is that there exists some redundancy that investors may not be aware of, and there are differences between the two systems.

Position – Long Sirius, Long XM

5/22/2007 11:52:00 AM

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XM Service Update - May 22

May 22, 2007
Tyler Savery

XM has issued a service update. Subscribers can log onto www.xmradio.com for additional information. This is the latest update:

XM Service Update

As many of you know, XM customers have experienced service outages or significantly degraded service since Monday mid-morning, May 21.

We quickly identified the problem and are working hard to return to our normal levels of service. The problem occurred during the loading of software to a critical component of our satellite broadcast system, which resulted in a loss of signal from one of our satellites. We expect normal service to resume midday today (eastern daylight time).

XM apologizes for any inconvenience this has caused. For updates, please go to www.xmradio.com

In the meantime, you can enjoy many of our music channels on XM Radio Online (xmro.xmradio.com) if you are close to computer.

Again, we regret any inconvenience for not having your XM Radio service fully available.

Position - Long XM

5/22/2007 10:51:00 AM

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At Martha's Table - New Sirius Content

May 27, 2007
Tyler Savery

Martha Stewart Living Radio Launches 'At Martha's Table' Exclusively on SIRIUS Satellite Radio

Martha goes live one-on-one for an in-depth conversation with the tastemakers of today
Series debuts with internationally acclaimed legendary chef and restaurateur Jean-Georges Vongerichten

NEW YORK, May 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News) announced today the launch of At Martha's Table, a new live one-on-one interview series on Martha Stewart Living Radio. The series features Martha Stewart conducting in-depth, intimate conversations with today's most influential tastemakers.

On the debut broadcast of At Martha's Table, Martha will sit down with internationally acclaimed chef and restaurateur Jean-Georges Vongerichten. The show will air live on Wednesday, May 23 from 7:00 - 8:00 pm on Martha Stewart Living Radio, SIRIUS channel 112. Martha and Jean-Georges will discuss his life, passions, and inspirations, and take calls from listeners. Jean-Georges will also share tips for the home cook.

Recognized internationally for his creative cuisine, Jean-Georges Vongerichten is one of the world's leading chefs who consistently sets new standards and helps define today's generation of cooking. He holds a total of sixteen stars from The New York Times for his New York City restaurants JoJo, Vong, Jean Georges, Mercer Kitchen, 66, Spice Market and Perry St. He has also received a total of 5 Michelin stars for Jean Georges, Vong, and Perry St. He currently has 19 restaurants in locations around the globe, including London, Paris, Shanghai, the Bahamas, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Bora Bora.

On Martha Stewart Living Radio, SIRIUS channel 112, Martha Stewart and her team of lifestyle experts teach, advise, and inspire around the-clock with shows about cooking, pet care, gardening, collecting, crafts, weddings and much more.

5/22/2007 10:45:00 AM

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XM Outage Continues

May 22, 2007
This morning, many XM listeners were in hopes of getting their service back. As yet it has not happened.

Grateful Dead Get Sirius

May 22, 2007

5/22/2007 08:59:00 AM

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Sirius Hooks Up With NXP Semiconductors for Satellite TV

May 22, 2007
Tyler Savery

SIRIUS Selects NXP Semiconductors for Satellite TV Service

Nexperia PNX9520 Processor to Enable SIRIUS Backseat TV in 2008 Model Year Chrysler Vehicles

EINDHOVEN, Netherlands & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NXP Semiconductors today announced that Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (Nasdaq:SIRI - News) has selected its Nexperia(TM) PNX9520 processor for SIRIUS Backseat TV(TM), a ground-breaking TV service that delivers live TV from the best family TV programmers directly to vehicles. SIRIUS Backseat TV will be launched later this year in select 2008 model Chrysler, Jeep® and Dodge vehicles. The PNX9520 multimedia processor from NXP has been designed into a system from Delphi Corporation.

Families will be able to access SIRIUS Backseat TV's high-quality entertainment through a simple, easy-to-operate TV service, featuring children's TV channels including Nickelodeon, Disney Channel and Cartoon Network.

"SIRIUS is dedicated to delivering the best in-vehicle entertainment available anywhere. With its multimedia processor, NXP is enabling us to deliver a high-quality experience - in terms of both video and audio - to make our new SIRIUS Backseat TV the Best TV in the Backseat," said James E. Meyer, SIRIUS President, Operations and Sales.

The Nexperia PNX9520 processor from NXP enables vibrant, leading-edge picture quality through a combination of highly efficient video decoding, advanced post-processing and graphics acceleration features - all available in a single, highly integrated device. Specifically designed for in-car entertainment, the PNX9520 solution is unique in offering advanced software features, including the ability to implement the latest audio and video codecs as they become available.

"NXP is excited to be working with SIRIUS, a pioneer in in-car video services, with its new SIRIUS Backseat TV," said Kurt Sievers, vice president, Automotive and Identification, NXP Semiconductors. "The PNX9520 multimedia processor makes the most of proven Nexperia technology from NXP - bringing the rich sensory experiences that consumers are accustomed to at home to the car."

Position - Long Sirius

5/22/2007 08:56:00 AM

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Why DirectTV/Echostar Would Get Approval In Today's Regulatory Environment

Google Proposes Innovation in Radio Spectrum Auction
By JOHN MARKOFF, The New York Times, May 22

Google filed a proposal on Monday with the Federal Communications Commission calling on the agency to let companies allocate radio spectrum using the same kind of real-time auction that the search engine company now uses to sell advertisements.
Executives at Google, based in the Mountain View, Calif., said that the company had no plans to bid in the closely watched sale of a swath of broadcast spectrum scheduled for February 2009 as part of the nation’s transition to digital broadcast television.
The company, the world’s dominant search engine, has, however, become an active participant in the debate over the control of access to broadband digital networks because it wants to create more competition among digital network providers like cable companies and Internet service providers.
The Google filing comes two days before a deadline for public comments set in an F.C.C. rule-making procedure for the sale of spectrum in the 700 MHz band, now largely used by UHF television broadcasters.
The agency is planning to set the rules for its auction this year as potential bidders, including telephone, cable and satellite operators — as well as potential consortiums interested in creating new next-generation digital wireless networks — jockey for position. Several groups of bidders hope to use the spectrum to create a new nationwide digital wireless network that would serve as an alternative broadband channel to businesses and consumers, competing with existing telephone and cable providers.
“The driving reason we’re doing this is that there are not enough broadband options for consumers,” said Adam Kovacevich, a spokesman for Google’s policy office in Washington. “In general, it’s the belief of a lot of people in the company that spectrum is allocated in an inefficient manner.”...read more: here

5/22/2007 06:48:00 AM

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FCC Comment Scorecard - 5-21 Edition

May 21, 2007
Tyler Savery

Comments Virtually Even Today - 29 PRO and 24 ANTI

Since the last report 53 new comments have been filed bringing the total to date to 552. Of today’s 53 comments, 29 were for the merger and 24 were against. Once again, most of the comments were form letters that seem to be an effort established by a group of people on either side of the issue. Another thing we see happening is the backlash from fans of Opie & Anthony, who now seem to be making efforts in the anti-merger camp. The effort seems to have died down a bit, but still exists with O & A fans making up over 20% of the anti merger comments.

The events of today see the Pro Merger camp still in front by 14 points.

PRO MERGER – 55%

ANTI MERGER – 41%

NOT APPLICABLE – 4%

If you are interested in filing your opinion on the merger, you can do so by clicking the link in the right sidebar of this site. Readers should also note that ALL comments filed with the FCC become part of the docket and record.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/21/2007 10:35:00 PM

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Foxxhole Launches On Sirius

Jamie Foxx Launches The Foxxhole Channel Exclusively on SIRIUS Satellite RadioMonday Foxx will executive produce and contribute live from around the world
24/7 comedy, music, and entertainment variety channel features innovative content, showcases new and legendary comedians and artists

NEW YORK, May 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall

SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News) today announced the launch of The Foxxhole, Jamie Foxx's exclusive 24/7 comedy, music and entertainment channel. Jamie Foxx, Academy Award-winning actor, American Music Award-winning and GRAMMY® nominated artist, and comedian is the channel's executive producer and will broadcast live from around the world....read more: here

5/21/2007 09:52:00 PM

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XM #3 Suffers In Orbit Difficulty

May 21, 2007
Tyler Savery

After many rumors and a lot of speculation, it appears that one of XM Satellite radio's newer satellites (XM#3) is the one that had difficulty.

The good news is that it appears that software and a repositioning of the satellite will be able to correct the issue.

Wedbush Excerpt:

Wedbush confirmed with XMSR that its XM-3 satellite suffered an in-orbit difficulty earlier today. Firm learned that in order to fix this issue, XMSR had to perform a software upgrade on the satellite, which required the satellite to be re-oriented to be corrected. That process also reportedly required the satellite to stop broadcasting. XMSR has yet to issue a press release or post some sort of update on its website to its subscribers. Based on firm's experience, it is not common for broadcast satellites to stop broadcasting in order to be "fixed". Keep in mind, it is not uncommon for satellites to report yearly availability rates of 99.999%. Thus, this type of service disruption is a natural concern. Obviously, once the satellite resumes broadcasting and XMSR's service is back on track, their concerns would be resolved.

Position - Long XM

5/21/2007 06:09:00 PM

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XM Signals

May 21, 2007

5/21/2007 02:20:00 PM

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Competition Alert: Clear Channel Launches Mobile Phone Access

Clear Channel Radio Launches Mobile Phone Access
May 21, 2007, www.fmqb.com

Clear Channel announced today the launch of a series of customized mobile phone applications for its New York cluster of stations: WHTZ (Z100), WAXQ, WKTU, WWPR (Power 105.1) and WLTW. CC plans to launch similar programs on at least 100 more stations by the end of 2008, starting with stations in Salt Lake City and St. Louis within in the next 60 days.
Listeners will be able to send text messages to the studio, participate in contests, receive alerts that their favorite song is coming up, make requests and find out what the last ten songs played were. They can also sign up for music news alerts, learn about in-studio appearances by artists, check traffic and participate in polls. Starting in June, station-branded wallpaper and format-specific ringtones will be available too.
“By making these applications available for free via any cellular phone carrier, Clear Channel Radio is monumentally expanding access to its growing mobile content portfolio,” said Clear Channel CEO John Hogan. “Each application allows users to have an individualized, on-demand experience, which will strengthen listeners’ connection with their favorite radio stations.”...read more: here

5/21/2007 11:07:00 AM

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XM Gets Political

May 21, 2007

Labels: POTUS 08, xm, xm shows

5/21/2007 10:11:00 AM

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Take a Minute And you May Win

May 19, 2007
Tyler Savery

Every once in a while it is good to step away from the news of the SDARS sector and do something fun. It is even better when that fun activity can win you some great prizes.

The folks at Tivo are having a contest.

This gives you the chance to win prizes such as a lifetime of Tivo service and a 42" plasma television. it would be great if an SSG reader were able to win the prize. so, go ahead and enter the contest. you have nothing to lose, and perhaps a great prize in your future.



This Tivo campaign is sponsored by Tivo. Good luck

5/19/2007 12:01:00 PM

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Opie & Anthony Fans Try To Play Spoiler

May 18, 2007
Tyler Savery

They are standing up for free speech. They are shouting out against censorship. They are letting everyone they know about how they feel. They are Opie & Anthony fans.

The problem........

They have picked a terrible, tasteless, and classless thing to rally around. Like it or not, this issue is centered around the comments made in the original show where a description of rape was aired. This is the focus, and this is the root cause of the suspension. The public perception ties to the original show, not the apology, and not the show where Opie & Anthony acted insicere about the issue (this final act is what drew the suspension).

Ask any American if they believe in free speech, and you will get a resounding YES for an answer. Ask any American if they for censorship and you will get many answers, but most are reasonable in their thinking.

What Opie and Anthony fans have decided to do is rally around a duo that right now is under the spotlight for encouraging criminal and violent behavior. A poor choice to say the least.

Does it feel good to rally around the description of, and egging on of a discussion about rape?

Would these supporters be so bold if Opie & Anthony had had a discussion about rape of minors?

What is the opinion of these folks if we take the actual words, and instead of Codi Rice, substitute in "6 year old girl"? Lets see just how many would support the duo then.

Opie & Anthony On XM Radio - Transcript - (substitutions in red)

(Guest) Homeless Charlie - "I tell you what...what's the George Bush b---h on Girl...? 6 year old girl"

O&A - "6 year old girl"

Charlie - "I'd love to f--- that bitch dude" (laughter)

Charlie - "She's the F---in man"

O&A - "yeah"

Charlie - "I'd F...that bitch...."

O&A - "I just imagine the horror in the 6 year old girl's face...."
- "(laughter) ..... as she realizes what's going on"
- "...as you were just holding her down and F'n her."

Charlie - "punch her all the F'n face, shut the F--- up bitch"

O&A - "that's exactly what I meant"
(laughter in background)

Charlie - "you know F--- it .... and George Bush wife? I'd F--- that bitch to death"

O&A - "yeah?"

Charlie - "Oh yeah. She needs a man."

O&A - "You digging her?"

Charlie - "Oh I love it"

So, the question is this. Do you still want to rally around such statements? Or would you express outrage at them? Where do you draw the line?

This is a very touchy subject. Everyone wants freedom of speech, and no one wants censorship, but people do want the content on radio to fall within some sort of boundary. It is perfectly fine to enjoy the Opie & Anthony show. They are humorous most of the time, and deliver an entertaining program. BUT.......that does not mean that you need to support everything they say. It is perfectly acceptable to sometimes disagree with what they say or do.

The problem here is that these fanatics are so caught up in the moment that they do not actually think clearly. They find themselves thinking they are making a statement to XM in protest, when in reality they are making a statement that it is okay to encourage criminal behavior.

a prank is one thing..........a rape is another. Think of a 6 year old girl and tell me if you feel the same way.

Think about this......You are standing up for "freedom of rape speech".....Does that make you proud?

If you are one of the "protesters", have read this far , and still don't get it, I would encourage you to rent the Jodie Foster Movie titled "The Accused". Watch the rape scene. Look at all of the bar patrons cheering on the event. Now look into the mirror......that is you. is that who you want to be?

Being a pest is one thing. Being a rape supporting pest is another. If you have any gumption at all, you would make speak as loudly against what was said as you have against XM. Telling opie & Anthony that you are a fan is great. Telling them that you feel they crossed the line would be a statement far more bold.

Think about it.

5/18/2007 08:12:00 PM

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FCC Comment Scorecard - 5-18 Edition

May 17, 2007
Tyler Savery

Anti Merger Camp Still Gaining

Since yesterdays report 51 new comments have been filed bringing the total to date to 499. Of today’s 51 comments, 10 were for the merger and 31 were against. Once again, most of the comments were form letters that ssem to be an effort established by a group of people. this was the case for comments both pro and anti merger. Another thing we see happening is backlash from fans of Opie & Anthony, who now seem to be making efforts in the anti-merger camp.

The events of today see the anti merger crowd gaining 4 points.

PRO MERGER – 54.91% (down from 58.93%)

ANTI MERGER – 40.48% (up from 35.94%)

NOT APPLICABLE – 4.01% (down from 4.46%)

If you are interested in filing your opinion on the merger, you can do so by clicking the link in the right sidebar of this site. Readers should also note that ALL comments filed with the FCC become part of the docket and record.

Position - Long sirius, Long XM

5/18/2007 06:02:00 PM

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FCC Comment Scorecard - 5-17 Edition

May 17, 2007
Tyler Savery

Anti Merger Camp Rallies

Since yesterdays report 79 new comments have been filed bringing the total to date to 448. Of today’s 79comments, 3 were for the merger and 76 were against. Interestingly, 21 of the anti-merger comments seemed to be part of a campaign where nearly identical comments were filed by differing individuals. An example of one of the form letters is below:

Sirs,

"I have been an XM subscriber for many years. I am concerned that the proposed merger of XM and Sirius radio will substantially change the programming and content I specifically selected when I signed up for XM. A merged company will remove competition for customers. The merged company will have no incentive to improve content, add services, or control subscription prices. The merged company would be a true monopoly. Satellite radio provides content that commercial radio can not legally broadcast and as such can not be considered competition. I would ask that you refuse to license a merged company and protect the consumers that you represent."

The events of today see the anti merger crowd gaining over 12 points.

PRO MERGER – 58.93% (down from 71%)

ANTI MERGER – 35.94% (up from 23.58%)

NOT APPLICABLE – 4.46% (down from 5.2%)

If you are interested in filing your opinion on the merger, you can do so by clicking the link in the right sidebar of this site. Readers should also note that ALL comments filed with the FCC become part of the docket and record.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/17/2007 09:08:00 PM

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Sirius Annual Shareholder's Meeting Scheduled

Be there!

May 24th, 9:00 AM, Link HERE

5/17/2007 07:19:00 AM

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Competition Alert: Amazon Music Service

Music Service From AmazonTakes On iTunes
By ETHAN SMITH and VAUHINI VARA, May 17, 2007; WSJ

The music-download service Amazon.com Inc. announced yesterday represents the latest attempt by a digital retailer to meet one of the biggest challenges facing the industry: how to sell music that consumers can play on a wide variety of devices, including Apple Inc.'s dominant iPod.
For now, the easiest way to sell music to create such a flexible consumer experience is to deliver music in a format, such as MP3, that doesn't include copy-protection software, known as digital rights management, or DRM. Music sold through Apple's iTunes store historically has come with DRM, meaning it can be played only on an iPod; likewise, music sold on most other services is incompatible with the iPod.
Bill Carr, Amazon's vice president of digital media, says that consumers find that arrangement "confusing and off-putting," and Amazon's store will only sell music that comes without copy protection, meaning it can be played on whatever digital device the consumer chooses...read more: here

5/17/2007 07:10:00 AM

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FCC Comment Scorecard - Merger Well Out In Front

May 16, 2007
Tyler Savery

SSG is introducing a new segment where we track the comments filed with the FCC regarding the proposed merger of Sirius and XM. As of May 16, 2007 a total of 369 comments have been filed with the FCC. We will update this segment on a regular basis.

At this point, those that want the merger are winning the race by a country mile.

The comments range from brief notes to long letters to ex parte communication notices, etc.

We have broken the comments down into three categories:

FOR – A person or organization expressing an opinion for the merger
AGAINST – A person or organization expressing an opinion against the merger
NOT APPLICABLE – communications that either expressed no opinion, or were unrelated.

Of the 369 comments the following is the breakdown:

FOR THE MERGER: 262 = 71.00%

AGAINST THE MERGER: 87 = 23.58%

NOT APPLICABLE: 20 = 5.42%

Interestingly, a large number of the comments on the negative side came from the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) and C3SR, a group that claims to be the “only organization that advocates on behalf of the satellite radio consumer”. This begs the question as to exactly who C3SR claims to advocate for (they are funded in part by the NAB), and whether they should even be claiming to advocate on the satellite radio consumers behalf. A quick tour of the C3SR site gave no membership numbers to indicate how large of a group they claim to support. Many comments took the NAB and C3SR to task while voicing their support for the merger. Between 15% and 20% of the negative comments came from these two organizations.

If you are interested in filing your opinion on the merger, you can do so by clicking the link in the right sidebar of this site.

position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/17/2007 12:13:00 AM

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Opie & Anthony Miss The Boat

May 16, 2007
Tyler Savery

Today I tuned in to terrestrial radio to catch the Opie & Anthony show. I wanted to see if this duo would perhaps demonstrate a moment of clarity and class. Sadly, this was not the case, and in my opinion Opie & Anthony missed an opportunity to try to set things straight.

What I was hoping to hear was a brief moment of sincerity and acknowledgement that certain comments (in particular those involving criminal behavior and violence) are better left unsaid, and that encouragement of such actions is not a line that should be crossed.

In my opinion, Opie & Anthony have now missed an opportunity to establish that they do indeed understand the ramifications of what they said. These two know full well that their fans are passionate and impressionable. They call their fans pests, and often comment on their activity. On certain occasions they call the “pests” into some course of action.

Do not be fooled, Opie & Anthony are well aware that there are many “pests” threatening to cancel XM service over this issue. The silence of Opie & Anthony is an endorsement of what is happening, and is a sad commentary on what these radio talents stand for. They had an opportunity today to calm the waters, and they chose not to do so. They have had an opportunity to offer a sincere statement on one of their web sites, and have chosen not to.

There is a time to step up to the plate and show some class. There is a time to set pride aside, and make efforts to make things right. It seems apparent that Opie & Anthony are not capable of such actions. I am a proponent of giving someone a second chance……but a third and a fourth chance are going above and beyond the call of duty.

It is sad that XM satellite Radio will now be victimized by a “Pest” campaign. It is sad that other on air talent will now have a cloud over what they say, and the subject of censorship will now be on the minds of many.

While the Opie & Anthony “Pests” may not appreciate these words, it is time that they demonstrate the class that opie & Anthony seem incapable of doing. Instead of cancelling your entire XM service, why not put your time and efforts into something that will have a better impact such as something helpful in your community. Defending free speech is noble……defending speech about violent sexual acts against women is classless.

I still wish that XM would have had another mechanism to discipline Opie & Anthony, but apparently they did not. It is unfortunate that XM seems to be suffering worse than Opie & Anthony, who are still on the air courtesy of CBS radio.

Position - Long XM, No Position CBS

5/16/2007 07:03:00 PM

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Interesting Happenings at XM411.com

May 15, 2007

5/15/2007 10:58:00 PM

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League of Rural Voters Urges FCC To Approve Merger

May 15, 2007

5/15/2007 10:34:00 PM

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Institutional Holdings - Update

May 15, 2007
Tyler Savery

Yesterday we outlined the institutional holdings of Sirius and XM. As we stated, the filing deadline for Q1 is May 15th. As of today, there are some interesting items to note in institutional activity. Likely, the NASDAQ site is now pretty much up to date, and any changes from this point will be minimal.

We want to note that institutional activity is typically reported after the fact. This makes the information old, and to trade by it may not be advisable. What investors should look for are substantial changes.

SIRIUS


Total Shares Held: 310 456,458,059

New Positions---- 34----19,193,424

Increased Positions----117----83,097,170

Decreased Positions----124----51,552,705

Holders With Activity----241----134,649,875

Sold Out Positions----43----15,337,493

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP - 31%

Of Note on Sirius:

Oppenheimer adding over 16.4 million shares

Norges bank adding 9.7 million shares

Lehman Brothers adding 6.1 million shares

Goldman Sachs selling 14.3 million shares

Intrepid Capital selling 6.0 million shares

Morgan Stanley selling 4.6 million shares

XMSR

Total Shares Held: 309 243,699,150

New Positions----43----15,624,153

Increased Positions----146----41,963,763

Decreased Positions----120----49,896,300

Holders With Activity----266----91,860,063

Sold Out Positions----49----11,909,378

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP - 80%

Of Note on XMSR:

Ameriprise Financial adding 6.5 million shares

Ivory Investment adding 5.0 million shares

T Rowe Price adding 3.5 million shares

Goldman sacks selling 12.2 million shares

AXA selling 10.4 million shares

Franklin Resources selling 2.8 million shares

As stated earlier, this information is dated (as of 3-31-07). SSG provides this information simply to help investors keep informed of institutional activity.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/15/2007 09:36:00 PM

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Did XM Go Too Far?

May 15, 2007

5/15/2007 09:33:00 PM

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Opie And Anthony Suspended for 30 Days

May 15, 2007
Tyler Savery

It has just crossed the wire that Opie & Anthony have been suspended by XM Satellite Radio for 30 days. The suspension is effective immediately.

Press Release Source: XM Satellite Radio

XM Radio Suspends Opie & Anthony
Tuesday May 15, 2:39 pm ET

WASHINGTON and NEW YORK, May 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- XM Radio announced today that the company has suspended Gregg "Opie" Hughes and Anthony Cumia, hosts of "The Opie & Anthony Show" and ceased broadcast of the show for 30 days, effective immediately.
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XM Radio deplored the comments aired on "The Opie & Anthony Show" last week. At the time, the company strongly expressed its views to Opie and Anthony, and they issued an immediate apology.

Comments made by Opie and Anthony on yesterday's broadcast put into question whether they appreciate the seriousness of the matter. The management of XM Radio decided to suspend Opie and Anthony to make clear that our on-air talent must take seriously the responsibility that creative freedom requires of them.

As a company, XM provides customers with tools to control what they listen to on XM. "The Opie & Anthony Show" appears on one of XM's explicit language channels (XL). Whenever a radio is tuned to an explicit language channel, the letters "XL" continuously appear on the screen. XM frequently mentions on its explicit language channels that the content may be inappropriate for certain listeners and tells how to "block" channels that feature this type of content. Channel blocking is available through xmradio.com or by calling 1-800-XMRADIO.

Position - Long XM

5/15/2007 02:43:00 PM

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Institutional Holdings

May 15, 2007
Tyler Savery

Investors often follow institutional holdings for equities. While institutional holdings do carry a potential impact on the price of an equity (they often carry large numbers of shares), the information lags by a time frame that diminishes the value of the information. Often, a position is taken or liquidated long before anyone knows that the activity has happened.

Institutions outline their holdings within 45 days of the end of a quarter. this means that the holdings summary for Q1 is due today, May 15th. Even at that, it takes a few days for all of the information to get into the system.

Investors should look for large swings in institutional ownership. This helps gage sentiment of the equity, however, bear in mind the age of the information.

We will outline the holdings as of today, and follow up with the latest information again on Friday.

Sirius

Institutional Holdings - 29.6% - 432,317,301 shares
Number of Holders - 311
New Positions - 31 - 18,953,952 shares
Increased Positions - 118 - 66,210,769 shares
Decreased Positions - 126 - 66,789,588 shares
Holders With Activity - 244 - 133,000,357 shares
Sold Out Positions - 48 - 23,465,651 shares

Largest Shareholder - Apollo

XMSR

Institutional Holdings - 82.1% - 251,376,551 shares
Number of Holders - 304
New Positions - 37 - 15,250,465
Increased Positions - 141 - 56,001,030
Decreased Positions - 121 - 43,132,986
Holders With Activity - 262 - 99,134,016
Sold Out Positions - 48 - 12,412,416

Largest Shareholder - Legg Mason

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/15/2007 08:56:00 AM

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Jacobs Media Publishes "HD Radio Findings"

HD Radio: Jacobs Media finds that awareness and knowledge are much improved, but there are still major barriers to purchase...read more: here

5/14/2007 11:24:00 PM

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Competition Alert: HD Radio Continues Roll-Out

HD Radio Now Broadcasting In All Top 100 Markets
May 11, 2007, www.fmqb.com

The HD Digital Radio Alliance celebrates a milestone today, as 15 new markets begin broadcasting in HD. This completes the rollout of HD Digital Radio to all of the top 100 markets in under 18 months. The new markets are: Gainsville, FL; Charleston, SC; Greenville, SC; Columbia, SC; Daytona Beach, FL; Des Moines, IA; Spokane, WA; Mobile, AL; Wichita, KS; Madison, WI; Colorado Springs, CO; Melbourne, FL; Tri Cities, TN; Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL and Lexington, KY.
“The HD Radio Alliance came together sixteen months ago and has made significant strides in that time culminating with the achievement of the top 100 markets rollout,” said Peter Ferrara, President/CEO of the HD Digital Radio Alliance. "None of this would have been possible without the consistent support of America’s radio broadcasters, whose vision and leadership have brought us to this meaningful milestone. Also crucial to the effort have been our partners; including retailers, and device and auto manufacturers. This notable achievement resulted from a collaborative industry effort, giving the consumer the opportunity to discover HD Radio virtually anywhere in the country."
“The HD Radio and HD2 multicast formats selections that the Alliance has helped to allocate will broaden the horizons of radio, enabling us to provide unique programming and compelling content, such as Deep Trax, Live Rock, Irish music and other new, exciting formats,” said Peter Smyth, Greater Media President/CEO. “The additional channels will also give young artists the opportunity and ability to be heard on the airwaves."...read more: here

5/14/2007 11:20:00 PM

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Rep. Issa Recuses Himself From Discussion About Merger

May 14, 2007
Tyler Savery

The proposed merger between Sirius and XM has many wrinkles. This latest one likely wont carry much play because congress has little to do with the merger between Sirius and XM, as it is the department of Justice that decides on the anti-trust matter.

The Center For Public Integrity has now focused some attention to Representative Darrell Issa because of his relationship to Directed electronics.

Article Excerpt:

Congressman Has Personal Stake in XM-Sirius Merger

By Brendan McGarry

WASHINGTON, May 14, 2007 – U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., could potentially benefit from a merger between satellite radio companies XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc., public documents show.

The 53-year-old Issa is the co-founder of Vista, Calif.-based Directed Electronics, Inc. (Nasdaq: DEIX), a security and entertainment systems-manufacturer and a major supplier of Sirius satellite radios. He served as president and chief executive officer of the company until 2000, when he was elected to Congress.

At the end of that year, Issa and his wife, Kathy, sold their controlling interest in Directed Electronics to Trivest, Inc., a private equity firm based in Miami. Through his charitable trust, the Issa Family Foundation, he retains a four percent minority stake in Directed Electronics, and sits on the company's board of directors, according to the company's 2007 proxy statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

After seeking written guidance from the House Ethics Committee about a potential conflict of interest in the merger, Issa will abstain from any committee or floor vote on the issue in the future, Dale Neugebauer, his chief of staff, said Friday.

"The congressman will be recusing himself on votes in the committee and House related to the XM-Sirius merger," Neugebauer said.

But during a Feb. 28 hearing about the merger by the House Judiciary Committee's Antitrust Task Force on the merger, Issa didn't mention his request to the Ethics Committee, or his business connections to Sirius. He sits on the task force, and participated in the hearing......READ MORE HERE

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM, No position Directed Electronics

5/14/2007 10:02:00 PM

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Retirement show Heads To Sirius

May 14, 2007
Tyler Savery

According to bizjournals a new bit of niche programming is headed to Sirius. The show, dedicated for people 55 and older will be hosted by Lea Thompson.

Article Excerpt:

bizjournals.com
Retirement program heads to Sirius Satellite Radio

Retirement Living TV, the cable network created for people 55 and over, has debuted a lifestyle and entertainment show airing nationally on Sirius Satellite Radio.
Called "Retirement Living with Lea Thompson,'' the one-hour show will feature upcoming interviews with people like CNN's Wolf Blitzer, former military heavyweight Oliver North and Johnny Carson sidekick Ed McMahon.......READ MORE HERE

Position - Long Sirius

5/14/2007 02:15:00 PM

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HD Radio Expands

May 14, 2007
Tyler Savery

5/14/2007 09:16:00 AM

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Chrysler Sold

May 14, 2007
Tyler Savery

AP Reports That Chrysler has been sol.

Article Excerpt:

Cerberus to Buy 80 Percent of Chrysler
By Matt Moore and Tom Krisher, AP Business Writers
Cerberus to Pay $7.4 Billion to DaimlerChrysler for 80.1 Percent of Chrysler


FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- DaimlerChrysler AG said Monday it will sell 80.1 percent of its money-losing Chrysler Group to private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP for $7.4 billion, unwinding a troubled 1998 combination aimed at creating a global leader.

The deal is a stunning reversal of the $36 billion takeover of Chrysler by Daimler-Benz AG that tried to set the mold for global automotive manufacturers. It also represents a huge bet for Cerberus, which has agreed to take on billions of dollars in pension and retiree health care costs at Chrysler.

"We're confident that we've found the solution that will create the greatest overall value -- both for Daimler and Chrysler," said Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche, who oversaw Chrysler before becoming DaimlerChrysler CEO in 2006. "With this transaction, we have created the right conditions for a new start for Chrysler and Daimler."

Shareholders reacted positively, sending DaimlerChrysler's shares up more than 7 percent after the deal was announced, before settling back at 64.04 euros ($86.36) for a gain of 5.6 percent.

Zetsche added that the two companies would still work together, particularly on existing conventional and alternative drive systems, purchasing, sales and financial services outside North America.

"We very much look forward to our continued cooperation as business partners, as we want to continue to reap the mutual benefits of working together," Zetsche said in a statement. "That's one of the reasons why we're retaining a 19.9 percent equity position in Chrysler."

DaimlerChrysler said the deal is likely to be complete by the third quarter........MORE HERE

Position - No position DCX

5/14/2007 09:10:00 AM

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Shock Jocks JV & Elvis Fired By CBS

May 13, 2007
Tyler Savery








Position - Long Sirius, Long XM, No Position CBS

5/13/2007 10:55:00 PM

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Nissan Announces Preorder of 2008 Altima - XM Featured

May 11, 2007
Tyler Savery




Nissan's shift to XM factory installations is underway, and the highly anticipated 2008 Altima can now be pre-ordered. With the 2008 model year, Nissan is expected to ramp up factory installations, and seeing XM satellite radio in the popular Altima model is welcomed news.



The Altima features not only XM satellite radio, but XM navigation as well. Nissan is moving towards making navigation a more mainstream accessory on vehicles, and many people will surly appreciate the move.

The stereo comes standard with AM/FM/CD, and has an available Bose upgrade as well as XM satellite radio, and an AUX jack for your plug and play, i-pod, or MP3 player. No matter what your taste, there is a solution in the new Altimma.

If you are interested in learning more about the 2008 Altima, or getting on the pre-order list, you can visit Nissan HERE

Position - Long XM, No position Nissan

5/11/2007 10:44:00 PM

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Morgan Stanley's Swinburne Issues Note On Sirius

May 11, 2007
Tyler Savery

Today a report was issued by Morgan Stanley. Report Excerpt Follows:

Sirius Satellite Radio - OEM Drives 1Q Sub Growth, Trimming FY07 Estimates

Conclusion: We are modestly lowering our FY07E subscription estimate from 8.34 mm to 8.26 mm, which remains above SIRI full- year guidance. As retail growth trends remain soft, we continue to expect OEM to become the more significant source of subscription growth throughout FY07. Although retail gross adds overall were weak, SIRI achieved a 76% retail share in 1Q07. By YE07, SIRI expects to penetrate roughly 34% of its OEM partners’ production compared to 23% in ’06, and 10% in ’05.

What's New: We look for SIRI to maintain a 54% retail market share advantage over XMSR in ‘07. Our current retail category forecast calls for 3.5 mm gross additions, implying a ~15% decline from FY06. SIRI reiterated its full year ’07 guidance of more than 8 mm subs and $95 SAC. 1Q results came in broadly in line with estimates led by better than anticipated OEM sub growth which offset weaker gross adds from retail (down 40% from 1Q06). Churn of 2.3% came in line with our estimates, while a shift in the % of subscribers on family plans and sub/ revenue recognition mismatch from OEM subscriptions drove ARPU of $10.30 below our $10.69 expectation for the quarter.

Implications: We believe SIRI could reach full year free cash flow positive (CFFO less capex) as soon ’08. Our model assumes that SIRI will benefit from a $2 monthly subscription rate increase in ’08 and material positive swings in working capital derived from subscription prepayments. By comparison, we have modeled in a $1 rate increase for XMSR during ’08 and we currently expect it to reach positive free cash flow (CFFO less capex) in ’09.

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE:

Swinburne expects

Modelware FCF - ($459,800,000)
CFFO less CFFI - ($254,700,000)
Revenue - $986,300,000
EBITDA - ($479,900,000)

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/11/2007 10:32:00 PM

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Apple, Microsoft, Real & Adobe Accused Of Violating Federal Copyright Law

Apple, others draw legal threat over media players
By Anne Broache, May 11 10:38:44 CNET

A California company that makes technology designed to prevent ripping of digital audio streams has accused Apple, Microsoft, RealNetworks and Adobe Systems of violating federal copyright law by "actively avoiding" use of its products.
Media Rights Technologies and its digital radio subsidiary BlueBeat.com said in a press release Thursday that it had issued cease and desist letters to the high-tech titans. It argues that the companies have manufactured billions of copies of Windows Vista, Adobe Flash Player, Real Player and Apple's iTunes and iPod "without regard for the DMCA or the rights of American intellectual property owners."
DMCA refers to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, a controversial 1998 law that generally makes it illegal to circumvent technological protection measures that control access to copyrighted works. The law says circumvent means "to descramble a scrambled work, to decrypt an encrypted work, or otherwise to avoid, bypass, remove, deactivate or impair a technological measure, without the authority of the copyright owner."
MRT, based in Santa Cruz, Calif., argues that its X1 SeCure Recording Control technology has been "proven effective" as such a protective measure by plugging the "digital hole" that allows even copy-protected music streams, when played back, to be captured and potentially copied. The company says that because the companies are avoiding use of its purportedly effective product, they are violating the DMCA.
"We've given these four companies 10 days to talk to us and work out a solution, or we will go into federal court and file action and seek an injunction to remove the infringing products from the marketplace," CEO Hank Risan said in a phone interview Friday. According to the MRT, the companies in question are responsible for 98 percent of the market's media players, which are in turn used by CNN, National Public Radio, Clear Channel, MySpace, Yahoo, YouTube and others....read more: here

5/11/2007 10:10:00 PM

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Health Alert: iPods May Interfere With Pacemakers

IPods may interfere with pacemakers
Last Updated: Friday, May 11, 2007, CBC News

People with implantable pacemakers may want to be cautious when listening to tunes on their iPods. Interference from the portable music player could cause pacemakers to malfunction, a study suggests.
Electrical devices such as cellphones, appliances and microwave ovens can cause interference, leading doctors to advise heart patients not to place the devices over pacemakers.
Jay Thaker, a 17-year-old high school student, wondered if iPods cause a similar effect. To find out, he tested iPods on 83 people with pacemakers, with an average age of 77.
When an iPod was held above five centimeters from the chests of the patients for five to 10 seconds, electrical interference was detected in about half of the 800 trials.
Pacemakers misfired because they may have mistaken electronic signals from iPods as a rhythm problem, said Thaker. ...read more: here

5/11/2007 10:09:00 PM

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The Opie and Anthony Issue

May 11, 2007
Tyler Savery

I thought long and hard about whether or not to give this issue any additional attention. For those that are not aware, XM and CBS Radio "Shock Jocks" Opie and Anthony have been widely criticised for comments they made about raping Secretary of State Condi Rice, and First Lady Laura Bush.

Now, prior to my commentary, I have a pretty simple opinion regarding the matter:

IF YOU DO NOT LIKE SOMETHING.......DON'T LISTEN

It is really that simple. Whether you agree or disagree with what Opie and Anthony said on their show, you the consumer have the final say-so in what you hear.

There are many shows that I do not like on the radio. I do not listen. WOW.....(no pun intended)..........an amazing concept.

Each listener carries within themselves their own censorship level. It differs for everyone. Let that be the the deciding factor. This is satellite radio, and it is where opinions can be freely expressed. There are also well over 100 other channels to listen to if you do not like one in particular.

To be clear, I am not saying that I agree with what was said, nor am I trying to condone it. What I am pointing out is that we, as citizens and consumers have an ability to control what we hear. Sure, it is fine to express consumer opinion, but I do not want to see satellite radio taken down the path of content regulation. if that happens, we as citizens and consumers are giving up much more than we may think.

Position - Long XM, No Position CBS

5/11/2007 03:34:00 PM

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O & A: Here's What The NY Post Had To Say

JOCKS JOKE ABOUT CONDI RICE RAPE
By DON KAPLAN, May 11, 2007, New York Post

SHOCK jocks Opie and Anthony are in trouble again after joking about raping Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
During Wednesday's show, a guest named "Homeless Charlie" told the deejays he wanted to have sex with Rice.
Anthony Cumia interrupted to say he "could just imagine the horror on Condoleezza Rice's face when she realized that you were holding her down and f - - -ing her."
"Punching her in the f - - -ing face and f - - -ing her," added a laughing "Charlie," before saying he also wanted to force himself on First Lady Laura Bush.
The obscene exchange took place on XM, a satellite radio station. But a recording of the Wednesday broadcast appeared on The Drudge Report yesterday, circulating the comments far beyond XM's relatively modest audience.
A portion of Opie & Anthony's show is also heard on CBS-owned 92.3 "Free FM," though the Rice-rape jokes were not made during that segment.
CBS said it had no plans to take "Opie & Anthony" off Free FM.
"We apologize to the public officials for comments that were made on our XM show... We take very seriously the responsibility that comes with our creative freedom and regret any offense that this segment has caused." an XM spokesman said....read more: here

5/11/2007 07:01:00 AM

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Directed Electronics Reports First Quarter 2007 Results

Directed Electronics Reports First Quarter 2007 Results
VISTA, Calif., May 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Directed Electronics, Inc. today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2007.

Net sales in the first quarter of 2007 were $78 million, an increase of 5% over the prior year first quarter net sales of $74 million. Gross sales of security and entertainment products in the first quarter of 2007 were $65 million, an increase of 65% over the prior year first quarter, primarily driven by the Polk acquisition and strong performance of the Definitive Technology business. Polk Audio represented $25 million of gross security and entertainment sales in the first quarter. Gross sales of satellite radio products were $15 million in the first quarter of 2007, compared to $36 million in the first quarter of 2006.

Pro forma net income for the first quarter of 2007 was $1.2 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, compared with pro forma net income of $3.6 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2006. GAAP net loss for the first quarter of 2007 was $2.8 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, which includes $5.5 million of expense related to the previously disclosed Omega lawsuit. GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2006 was $4.0 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, which included $0.4 million of one-time income tax benefit related to the revaluation of deferred tax assets and liabilities...read more: here

5/11/2007 06:09:00 AM

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Senators Introduce Bill To Block Net Radio Royalty Hike

via PC World, May 11

Net radio stations got a boost Thursday with the introduction of a new Senate bill that would block an aggressive increase in the copyright royalties webcasters pay to record labels.
The new Senate bill--called the Internet Radio Equality Act of 2007--is sponsored by Rep. Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) and Rep. Sam Brownback (R-Kansas). It's a companion bill to another piece of legislation of the same name introduced in the House last month by Reps. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.) and Donald Manzullo (R-Ill.)....read more: here

5/10/2007 10:13:00 PM

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Sirius Files 10Q

May 10, 2007
Tyler Savery

sirius has filed their 10Q for Q1 2007.

Investors can find the filing HERE

Position - Long Sirius

5/10/2007 11:44:00 AM

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T Rowe Price Increase Stake In XMSR

T Rowe Price filed a 13G/A today indicating they had increased their ownership in XM to over 10% with 31.7 million shares as of 4/30/07, up from 26.4 million at the end of 2006, making them the largest institutional shareholder of XM. It seems likely they may have absorbed some of the selling pressure from AXA noted earlier. Click HERE for link to SEC filing.

5/10/2007 10:47:00 AM

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Regulatory Analysts Bullish On Sirius and XM Merger

May 10, 2007
Tyler Savery

There is a lot of opinion on the street relative to the proposed merger between Sirius and XM. Opinions vary greatly and this can make it difficult for investors to digest what is likely to happen. One way to wade through all of the opinion is to seek out analysts who follow the regulators on a regular basis.

In an article published by Communications Daily the sentiment on the merger seems more bullish than the opinions of analysts that follow the equities proper.

ARTICLE EXCERPTS:

Regulatory Analysts Bullish on Satellite Radio Merger Approval
Communications Daily

FARMINGTON, Pa. -- Analysts who mainly follow regulatory issues said at the annual FCBA seminar they disagree with colleagues who expect DoJ or the FCC to reject the XM-Sirius merger. Blair Levin of Stifel Nicolaus said N.Y.-based analysts may be misreading the regulatory tea leaves. Anna-Marie Kovacs of Regulatory Source Assoc. and George Reed-Dellinger of Washington Analysis agreed that regulators are likely to approve the satellite radio merger.

"The 3 of us are in the minority on Wall Street," Levin said: "One of the more compelling arguments for the deal to go through is that the terrestrials have 3G. There's a lot of competition in the mobile audio market coming online." Some analysts may read too much into tough questions from Congress and a few negative comments at the FCC, Levin said, adding that DoJ will be key to whether the merger proceeds.

"I'm surprised so far I've not seen a lot of congressional resistance to the deal," Kovacs said: "I had expected a great deal more... It is looking better at this stage than I would have initially expected."

"I think XM-Sirius does get through," Reed-Dellinger said: "I think $3 billion to $6 billion of synergies will buy you a lot of conditions at the Commission." Likely conditions include rate caps and a requirement that the combined company offer programming a la carte, he said.

Programming is the likeliest focus of regulatory conditions, Levin told us.
"There'll be conditions dealing with indecency,² he said: ³That means either a family friendly tier or a la carte, some way in which people who want to buy a tier of programming without anything that anyone would consider indecent are able to do so. Second is a la cart on its own, which is not related to indecency but rather is related to the question of consumer choice."

Regulators also likely will strengthen restrictions against local programming, he said. The FCC will set a public interest programming condition, Levin said: "Finally, there's a series of things that one might think of as cleanup items -- the interoperability of devices." Levin doesn't expect regulators to require the merged company to sell spectrum, he said: "If you believe there's a broader market, you don't need the spectrum divestiture. If you don't believe it, the spectrum divestiture won't help you."

Reed-Dellinger said investors should be looking hard at the 2008 election.

"Every investor out there ought to be contemplating the likelihood of a Democratic FCC" and the implications for future mergers, he said. "2009 is really big," Levin said, predicting a govt.-wide shift from the post-9/11 focus on homeland security: "The govt. intervention in the marketplace in the first 6 months of 2009 will be more significant than at any other time in recent memory."

Reed Dellinger, which SSG has written about before specializes in following the regulatory process. Their focus on the value of the synergies seems to indicate that there is more than enough room for regulators to get some items they want without the companies giving up the farm to get the deal done. Another interesting comment regarding the election could help investors understand the timeframe involved. While not scientific in nature, it is my opinion that the process will get through the DOJ portion in the late September to October timeframe. I just don't see much action happening after Thanksgiving, and I can see regulators doing the bulk of their decision process late summer and early fall, with a goal of having their work complete before the holidays.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

5/10/2007 09:16:00 AM

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AXA Reduces Position In XMSR

AXA reported they have reduced their position to 12,997,000 shares of XMSR as of April 30, 2007, or 4.2%. That is down from 31,277, 000 at the end of 2006, when they were XM’s largest institutional shareholder. No doubt this has been a source of the selling pressure on XM over the last several weeks.

Here's the LINK to the SEC filing.

5/10/2007 08:00:00 AM

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NAB Does Not Want A Level Playing Field

May 9, 2007
Tyler Savery

Suddenly the NAB has something new to focus their attention on. News surrounding the RIAA and others seeking royalties from terrestrial radio stations hits the NAB membership where it counts......in their wallets!!!!

David Rehr labels this as a new tax, and claims that it is unfair. So, for those keeping score, the NAB is fighting the royalty increase on internet radio (a segment that made $200,000,000 in revenue for their membership in 2006), and now is fighting the proposed royalties for terrestrial radio. Funny thing is, he has never stated anywhere that satellite radio paying these fees is unfair.

Rehr stated in a letter to every senator, "For the last 70 years, a symbiotic relationship has existed between radio and the recording industry. Radio has prospered with the use of recorded music, and record labels and performers have benefited from airplay and other promotional activities of local broadcasters. From this free airplay, the recording industry enjoys increased popularity, visibility and record sales." Rehr also notes that "performers also benefit from radio airplay and on-air interviews, often timed to coincide with concert appearances in the radio stations' service areas. "

HMMMMM......couldn't the same type of relationship exist with satellite radio?????

In my opinion, Rehr trying to label this as a tax is a poor path to getting his point across. Taxes are imposed by government for revenues that go to that government. The RIAA and artists are not a government.

For followers of the SDARS sector, it will be interesting to see just how Rehr handles this new situation. He has to choose words carefully, or he will find himself in contradictions (as has already happened a few times) his argument against the Sirius and XM merger.

Whether the NAB likes it or not, the landscape in audio entertainment has changed. The membership of the NAB might do well to adjust.

Readers can access the Rehr letter HERE

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

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Competition Outlook

May 9, 2007
Tyler Savery

If you follow SSG, you are likely familiar with Slacker. Slacker is an upstart company that delivers audio content to consumers via the internet at this point, but will be launching a satellite based delivery component this summer.

Slacker will not be launching satellites to get their service running. Instead, they will lease space from existing satellites. Many thought that this seemed to far fetched to be viable. Well, today, and article published by Radio World Newspaper shows that such concepts are indeed viable.

Article Excerpt:

Ku-Mobile Could Revive Retired Sats

by Michael Lawton, 5.09.2007


COLOGNE, Germany A German consortium has found a new angle for satellite radio: Using old satellites to deliver file-based programs to listeners in their cars.
Not only does this solution allow for broadcasting to mobile users without the need for terrestrial repeaters, according to proponents; it also allows users to determine their own program preferences.

The European Space Agency, which promoted the project with nine partners, said its team has designed a flat, mobile antenna built into a car roof. The antenna receives Ku frequency band signals from existing satellites, saving ESA from the cost of launching new satellites.

The agency and its partners worked on the system for more than three years. A challenge was that the satellites used by the system were designed to broadcast television signals to large, fixed dish antennas. For use in cars, they needed a new approach to achieve an antenna that they say can be built in easily by car manufacturers.

The prototype system has been tested and found to work, though it will be some time a while before it is commercially available.

Direct contact

“Satellites usually have to be taken out of service, not because they cannot broadcast any more,” said Erich Lutz of the German space agency, which developed the packet-based transmission system and organized the reception tests.

“The problem,” said Lutz, “is that they run out of fuel to power the motors that keep them exactly in [their orbital] position. That is no good for reception by a fixed dish on a house roof, but it is no problem for the dish on a car, because it has to follow the satellite anyway.”

Time on these end-of-life satellites is relatively cheap, consortium members say, and they stay in orbit until the satellite operator is ready to replace them. “There are always several available,” said Lutz, “and when one is ready to be removed, we can send an instruction to the dish to select another.”

But satellite radio signals may be blocked by tall buildings, trees or other obstructions. That’s why Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio back up their transmission system with terrestrial repeaters.

Satellite radio in the United States transmits on S-band. Ku-band transmission may be an issue, detractors say, for two reasons: There is no industry standard and geostationary satellites can have poor coverage in Europe.

This is why instead of transmitting programming streams, the German consortium decided to send packets of data and to reconstruct the packets within the receiver.

Several streams

Audio is encoded using aacPlus and divided into files that are delivered as separate data packets. After reception by the user, the files are cached, with material lost due to reception problems retrieved from redundant packets sent with a short delay.

As soon as all the packets that make up a complete program arrive, the user can play it, usually just minutes after origination, the proponents say. Received signals can also be stored for later playback.

In addition to the audio files, the satellite also sends separate files with instructions for program reassembly. Several streams can be multiplexed simultaneously, in which case a multiplex configuration file must also be transmitted.......MORE INTERESTING ITEMS FROM THIS ARTICLE HERE.


Clearly the pathway to delivering audio content via satellite is no longer as cumbersome as many people thought.

5/09/2007 09:53:00 PM

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XM Files Form 4's

Position - Long XM

5/09/2007 09:33:00 PM

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Sirius Gets Mention In Dale Jr. Article

May 9, 2007


Tyler Savery

While some of the exclusive content on Sirius and XM satellite radio was pricey to obtain, there is an advantage to having exclusive content. Ironically, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a running show on XM Satellite Radio, but it was Sirius, which covers NASCAR exclusively now that gets credit for the scoop.


These content deals pave the way for satellite radio to become a more common source for specific information. XM and Sirius both have channels dedicated exclusively to the major sports, and those channels are getting a bigger following each year.


Satellite radio subscribers to Sirius can look for more detailed information on the Sirius NASCAR Channel. XM listeners will likely get the scoop from Jr. himself on his XM show.


ARTICLE EXCERPT:

Earnhardt Jr. leaving DEI
By Jerry Bonkowski, Yahoo! Sports

Dale Earnhardt Jr. officially will say goodbye to Dale Earnhardt Inc. on Thursday morning, Yahoo! Sports has learned.

A highly placed source within DEI as well as additional sources familiar with the situation told Yahoo! Sports on Wednesday afternoon that both Junior and teammate Martin Truex Jr. will announce Thursday morning that they are leaving the DEI camp at the end of this season and will drive for Earnhardt's heretofore Busch Series operation, JR Motorsports.

Sirius Radio also reported late Wednesday afternoon that the Earnhardt/Truex split with DEI was a done deal and that the new Cup team entry will field Chevrolet chassis built by Hendrick Motorsports and will use Hendrick engines as well.

Sources tell Yahoo! Sports that Earnhardt Jr.'s primary sponsor, Budweiser, will follow Junior to JR Motorsports. Budweiser's contract with DEI is due to expire at the end of 2008, but Yahoo! Sports sources believe there are provisions within the contract for an early exit if Earnhardt Jr. does not drive the No. 8 Chevrolet for DEI.

The press conference, which will be televised nationally, will take place at JR Motorsports headquarters in Mooresville, N.C., at 11 a.m. ET on Thursday.

There has been no comment thus far from either DEI president Teresa Earnhardt (Dale Jr.'s stepmother) or company director of global operations Max Siegel.

Truex's contract with DEI reportedly runs through 2008, though '08 might be only an option year on his deal with the team. It also is possible Truex has an out tied to primary sponsor Bass Pro Shops' future with the DEI. Sources have told Yahoo! Sports that the sponsor has explored moving to a different team after this season........MORE HERE

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

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AT&T Updates the 8525 Hand-Held, With XM Radio

I supposed the Bridge Ratings study below should have included satellite radio, too!

AT&T updates the 8525, includes XM
via www.orbitcast.com, May 9th

In their ongoing rebranding effort, the Cingular 8525 smartphone now will be known as the... AT&T 8525. But the stellar namechange isn't the only news here, the 8525 is getting some added features, including XM Radio Mobile pre-loaded.
The AT&T 8525 still rocks many of the features that made it popular when it launched last year: like a sliding QWERTY keyboard, integrated Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 2.0, a 2-megapixel camera and video recorder, WMP 10 Mobile and support for Microsoft Windows Mobile 5.0.
Now, the AT&T 8525 also comes with AT&T Push to Talk functionality as well as AT&T Mobile Music - which includes XM Satellite Radio - pre-installed.
AT&T Mobile Music lets you download full-track songs, music videos, ringtones, music news, and MusicID. AT&T 8525 users can also access music chat rooms, streaming over-the-air music and AT&T is the first U.S. carrier to offer subscription music to the handset from services like Yahoo! and eMusic...read more: here

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Bridge Ratings: Updated May 9th

Bridge Ratings Industry Study : The Mobile Phone Consumer: Implications for Terrestrial Radio
For Immediate Release: Wednesday May 9, 2007

Cell Phone Radio Subscriptions May Be a Business
Bridge Ratings conducted its bi-annual study to analyze mobile phone consumer behavior and potential impact of cell phone use on terrestrial radio. Included in this study was the degree of interest by consumers in the availability of radio station audio on cell phones. The study measured interest in broadcast, Internet radio, satellite radio and podcast radio.
The study used a sample of 3506 persons ages 13+ conducted by telephone interview and internet input between February 28 and April 30, 2007.
Cell phone pervasiveness will be a significant contributor to the success of cell phone radio. Top line findings of our national study conducted between December 5, 2006 and March 30, 2007 projects that in the United States, 70% of the U.S. population owns a cell phone: U.S. population stands at 300 million, with 210 million cell phone users. In fact, today cell phone technology is the only audio-capable technology that could approach traditional radio's market penetration (currently at 93% or 276 million Americans who listen to terrestrial radio at least once a week).
As users of cell phones become more comfortable with technology they are using their devices in ways previously monopolized by terrestrial radio: distribution of information and music. In fact, at this early stage, receiving traditional radio broadcasts or accessing radio broadcast content on-demand are services of interest for a respectable 30% of our sample...read more: here

5/09/2007 02:21:00 PM

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Motley Fool Counterpoint: Why Satellite Radio Will Succeed

Why Satellite Radio Will Succeed
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz, Motley Fool, May 9, 2007

Perhaps like you, I was drawn to Rich Duprey's "Why Satellite Radio Will Fail" article like a moth to a flame war. Even though my once-bullish perspective on satellite radio has started to fade of late, I wasn't ready to suit up as a pallbearer for the heavy coffins of XM Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI).
Sure, growth is decelerating. It's a challenge to sign up boatloads of new gross subscribers while membership churn cycles result in fewer net additions. Emerging technologies are hitting close to home. The satellite-radio promise has fallen short in many ways, but death isn't the inevitable destination.
Satellite radio can't die. Common sense won't let it happen...read more: here

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RIAA et al Seeks Royalties From Terrestrial Radio (Now That They Can't Do Payola)

Labels, Artists Move For Terrestrial Performance Right
May 08, 2007 - Legal and Management, www.billboard.com

Record label and artist groups are gearing up to lobby Congress for a performing right over terrestrial radio. Sources say that the groups now laying the groundwork for the push are the RIAA, the American Assn. of Independent Music (A2IM), the Recording Artists Coalition (RAC), the Recording Academy, musicians' and vocalists' unions AFM and AFTRA, and sound recording performance rights organization SoundExchange.Currently, owners of most types of copyrighted works have an exclusive public performance right. Music publishers and songwriters have this right, receiving royalties for their compositions broadcast over-the-air (e.g., terrestrial radio) and streamed digitally. Broadcasters license these rights from, and pay these royalties to, ASCAP, BMI or SESAC.In most countries outside the U.S., sound recording copyright owners and performers hold performance rights for terrestrial (i.e., analog) broadcasts and digital transmissions. But U.S. law only grants copyright owners and performers a performance right for digital transmissions. As a result, only satellite, cable and Internet radio must pay performance royalties to publishers as well as sound recording owners, musicians and vocalists in the U.S....read more: here

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Panasonic Launches Strada

May 8, 2007
Tyler Savery


Panasonic introduced a compelling new vehicle component today......The Panasonic Strada CN-NVD905U.


The Strada is far more than your average car stereo system. It is a stereo, a GPS system, and a video screen, which all fit nicely into a standard double DIN slot. By the way, the $1,800 unit is Sirius and XM ready.

Rob Lopez, Panasonic's National Marketing Manager stated, ""With its incredible performance, Strada is a best-seller in Japan, and we intend to really put it on the map and establish Panasonic as a leader in the U.S. mobile navigation market,"


Key Features:


- 7" Touch Panel LCD
- Intuitive User Interface
- Customizable Menues
- Voice Guidance
- Ultra 1 Chip Computing Power
- 2.5" 30GB Hard Disk Drive
- Sirius Traffic Ready
- Bluetooth Ready
- Rear View Camera ready
- Satellite radio Ready (Sirius and XM)
- DVD Video Playback
- Maps of U.S. Candad and Puerto Rico
- Detailed maps of 86 U.S. Cities
- Easy Map Updates
- 12 Million Points of Interest (POI's)
- All-In-1 AV Station
- IPod Music and Video Ready


Readers who want to learn more about Strada can watch the presentation from Panasonic HERE

Author is Long Sirius, Long XM, and has no position in Panasonic

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Sirius Files Form S-8 With SEC (401K Plan)

May 8, 2007
Tyler Savery

Sirius filed form S-8 with the SEC today. the filing represents the issuance of 1,300,000 shares of stock in relation to the 5,900,000 previously authorized.

Filing Information:

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.
1221 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10020

May 8, 2007

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.
1221 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10020

Dear Sirs:

I am familiar with the Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. 401(k) Savings Plan (the “Plan”) under which 5,950,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Common Stock”), of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), have been authorized for issuance. I have acted as counsel to the Company in connection with the preparation and filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”), of a Registration Statement on Form S-8 (the “Registration Statement”) with respect to the registration under the Act of 1,300,000 shares of Common Stock of the Company.

I have examined the Registration Statement and the Plan. I also have examined the originals or duplicates or certified or conformed copies of such records, agreements, documents and other instruments and have made such other investigations as I have deemed relevant and necessary in connection with the opinions expressed herein. In rendering the opinions below, I have assumed the genuineness of all signatures, the legal capacity of natural persons, the authenticity of all documents submitted to me as originals, the conformity to the original documents of all documents submitted to be as duplicates or certified or conformed copies and the authenticity of the originals of such latter documents.

Based upon the foregoing, and subject to the qualification and limitations stated herein, I am of the opinion that the Shares to be issued by the Company pursuant to the Plan have been duly authorized and, upon their issuance and delivery in accordance with the Plan, will be validly issued, fully paid and non-assessable.

I do not express any opinion herein concerning any law other than the law of the State of New York, the federal law of the United States and the Delaware General Corporation Law, (including the statutory provisions, all applicable provisions of the Delaware Constitution and reported judicial decisions interpreting the foregoing). I am not admitted to practice in the State of Delaware.

I hereby consent to the filing of this opinion as Exhibit 5. to the Registration Statement.

Very truly yours,

/s/ Patrick L. Donnelly, Esq.

Patrick L. Donnelly, Esq.
Executive Vice President,
General Counsel and Secretary
______________________________
Position - Long Sirius

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WSJ: As Deal Barriers Fall, Takeover Bids Multiply

As Deal Barriers Fall,Takeover Bids Multiply
Regulators and SizePose Less of a Problem; 'Nobody Is Off Limits'
Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2007; Page A1

One after another, the longstanding barriers that protected companies from takeovers are dissolving. The result: an unprecedented wave of deal making in which, it seems, few companies are entirely safe.
National borders and size used to be obstacles, but three banks from across Europe have assembled a nearly $100 billion offer to dismember Dutch bank ABN Amro Holding NV. It used to be unworkable for leveraged-buyout firms to buy finance companies and load them up with debt. Private-equity firms and banks broke through that roadblock when they proposed a $25 billion takeover plan for student lender Sallie Mae. Family-controlled companies, especially those with a special class of super-voting stock, were thought to be untouchable, but that hasn't stopped Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. from offering $5 billion for Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal....reda more: here

5/08/2007 07:02:00 AM

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What Cramer Said On MadMoney Tonight

Cramer's 'Mad Money Lightning Round': Tower of Power
By TheStreet.com Staff, 5/7/2007

Here's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the "Mad Money Lightning Round" Monday evening:
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating): "If the government were to allow Sirius to merge with XM (XMSR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), you would overnight have a $6 stock on your hands." If the merger doesn't go through, though, Cramer sees Sirius going to $2, and he fears one of the two companies could go out of business....read more: here

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Stifel's Kit Springs Maintains Buy On Sirius

May 7, 2007
Tyler Savery

In a note published today Kit Springs of Stifel Nicholas outlined his thoughts on the situation with Sirius.

Report Excerpt:

- Updated Model and Thoughts: Maintain Buy and $5 Target

- Our updated model is attached - DCF value remains $5: We made several minor changes based on 1Q, but no material changes to our DCF.

Our key assumptions are as follows:

• OEM penetration, which is the #1 variable in our model, goes from 1 out of 3 new cars today to 3 out of 4 by 2012.

• OEM conversion rate trends from 50% in 2007 to 40% by 2012 due to competition from iPods & HD Radio and because lower priced cars are likely to be more price sensitive.

• Gross retail additions decline 5-10% a year because satellite radio becomes factory installed in new cars, the preferred way to receive it.

• Monthly self-pay churn increase 0.05% per year from 1.73% in 2007 to 1.98% in 2008 due to increased competition from iPods, HD, Internet.

• The above drives total subs from 6.6MM currently to 16MM by year-end 2012, or about 1-2MM net additions per year.

• SIRI eventually will raise monthly prices by $2 from $13 to $15, but not until about 2-3 years from now when it has more subscribers.

• Costs/sub come down due to economies of scale and mass production: SAC from $95 in 2007 to $50 by 2012. Exception is royalties and revenues share which rise from 13% to 18% of revenues because of increasing mix of OEM.

• The above yields EBITDA and FCF positive in 2H08 and full year 2009.

• The above yields ~950MM or $0.52 of FCF in 2012 with $0.85 of net cash.

• Conservatively putting a market multiple of 16x FCF/share and discounting back to today at an 9.5% cost of equity yields $5. We also do a more detailed traditional DCF that yields a similar value.

• A successful merger with XMSR could add $1 to our valuation.

Tyler Savery - Long Sirius - Long XM

5/07/2007 09:18:00 PM

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Center For Public Integrity Focuses On Kilgore Conversation With FCC Commissioner

May 7, 2007
Tyler Savery

It appears that the proposed merger between sirius and XM is getting a lot of attention from various channels. According to Jeffrey York of Radio and Records, there has been relationship between the Commissioner (Robert McDowell) and Kilgore who has ties to C3SR, a group that is associated with the NAB and claims to represent satellite radio consumers. McDowell has been quoted as saying he he has made no decision relative to the merger, and was waiting on the DOJ process to play out.

Article Excerpt:

By Jeffrey Yorke

FCC commissioner Robert McDowell is being urged by an old friend to vote against the $13.6 billion merger of Sirius Satellite Radio and rival XM Satellite Radio. According to a report by the Center for Public Integrity in Washington, D.C., former Virginia attorney general Jerry Kilgore met with McDowell on Tuesday at the FCC to press McDowell to reject the proposed merger.

Kilgore, a Republican who lost a 2005 bid to become governor of Virginia to Democrat Tim Kaine, is a longtime ally of McDowell's. Kilgore's candidate committee donated $12,500 to McDowell's failed 2003 campaign for a seat in the Virginia House of Delegates, the report said.

Kilgore lobbied McDowell on behalf of the Consumer Coalition for Competition in Satellite Radio, an NAB-funded group that describes itself as a group of George Washington University law students......READ MORE HERE

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JD Power: Satellite Radio Popular With Boat Owners

J.D. Power and Associates Reports: Satellite Radio is More Popular Among Boat Owners Than Vehicle Owners
Mon, 07 May 2007, PRNewswire

As advanced technologies in marine audio systems become increasingly popular, new-boat owners are more likely to subscribe to satellite radio than new-vehicle owners, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2007 Marine Audio Report(SM) released today...read more: here

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Clear Channel In Play

Clear Channel confirms it is in discussions with private equity group regarding a revised merger proposal (37.35 +1.00) -Update-
www.briefing.com, In Play, 5/7/07

Co announces the board of directors is in discussions with the private equity group co-led by Bain Capital Partners, and Thomas H. Lee Partners, regarding a possible change in the terms and structure of the proposed merger between an affiliate of the private equity group and Clear Channel. Currently under discussion is a proposal that contemplates (i) an increase in the merger consideration to be paid to all shareholders from $39.00 to $39.20 per share and (ii) the opportunity for each unaffiliated shareholder to elect between cash and stock in the surviving corporation in the merger (up to an aggregate cap equivalent to 30% of the outstanding shares immediately following the merger (or approximately 6% before the merger)). The board of directors rescheduled the Special Meeting of Shareholders to Tuesday, May 22, 2007, at 1:00 p.m., Central Daylight Savings Time, to allow the board of directors sufficient time to complete its discussions with the private equity group, consult with its significant shareholders and further develop the buyer's proposal to issue in the merger equity in the surviving corporation.

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Barron's: Blair Levin Of Stifel On SIRI+XMSR Merger

A Beltway Vet Charts Telecom's Future
By TIERNAN RAY, Barron's, 5/4/07

FOR FOUR YEARS IN THE MID-1990S, Blair Levin was chief of staff at the Federal Communications Commission, overseeing the landmark government auctions of airwaves that gave birth to the U.S. cellular phone business.
On the eve of an auction of television airwaves this year, Barron's Online caught up with Levin, now a Washington-based managing director with investment bank Stifel Nicolaus, to discuss the last big land-grab in wireless communications, the fate of the XM-Sirius satellite radio merger, and where competition is headed in telecom, among other issues...

...Q: What's your view on the proposed XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio merger? A: A lot of folks are focused on the political opposition to the XM/Sirius deal. I'm a little surprised people are focused on that. There's always political opposition to deals, but what you want to look at is the economic analysis of the deal, because that tells you whether or not the Department of Justice is likely to say yes or no. [By that I mean] market share, pricing behavior -- the stuff that economists get paid to analyze, as opposed to political operatives. Neither proponents nor opponents in my view have focused much attention on those economic metrics. For example, one of the things that's interesting is that you have two companies, and there's basically been one price increase in five years. If you think that they're a separate market and there's only two competitors, you would have to say why aren't they raising their prices more, particularly since they're not making money? So you would want to analyze that. I don't know what the analysis will show. My sense is it's more likely the deal will go through, and I realize that's a minority view on Wall Street.
Q: Better than 50%? A: Yes, but not much better! Let me point out to you the two things other people say that I find most interesting and wrong. No. 1, there's a significant focus on what the FCC will do. The Justice Department will make the first call [regarding the analysis of the competitive environment] and they'll say yes or no. There has never been a case where if the DOJ says yes, the FCC says no. So, I'm more focused on the DOJ relative to the FCC, even though I love the FCC! I'm talking about what history and institutional logic suggest.
No. 2, a number of critics say the deal is just like the direct broadcast satellite deal from a few years back. [Note: Echostar Communications tried to buy DirecTV in 2002 but the DOJ and FCC stopped the deal]. Well, with all due respect, the video market is quite different from the audio market. In the case of satellite TV, there was a fear that while there might be competition in New York, there would be no competition in rural America. There is no possibility of price discrimination in satellite radio because the product is sold nationally and you can get your radios anywhere. Moreover, there are certain things going on in the market that will make [satellite radio's] business more difficult. I would point to the 700 megahertz [airwaves] auction, which once it's done, increases the odds of Internet radio in the car. If you thought Internet radio was going to be in every car, how would you look at this deal? I think you'd look at it very differently....read more: here

5/05/2007 08:58:00 AM

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Satellite Radio TechWorld On iSirius Cell Phone

The "eagle eyes" at Satellite Radio TechWorld spotted this:


i-Sirius
via Satellite Radio TechWorld, May 4, 2007

Has anyone ever heard of i-Sirius? They are brand new on the scene of cell phone applicants. They seemed to be cloaked in secrecy. We don't know if there is any relationship, but we are keeping an eye on this one. The dot over the "i" seems to signify a satellite...read more: here
..

5/05/2007 08:25:00 AM

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Imus To Sue CBS For $120 M

Report: Don Imus to Sue CBS Radio for $120 Million
May 4, 2007, via Radio Online

Former Westwood syndicated air talent and WFAN-AM/New York morning man Don Imus is going to sue CBS for $120 million, according to a draft copy of the complaint obtained by ABC News' Law & Justice Unit. The draft of suit, expected to be filed next week, says that the network expected him to be controversial and irreverent under the terms of his contract. And it claims Imus's show was on a 5-second delay that allowed the network to censor him if they wanted.
The draft points out that Imus wasn't fired for two weeks after the remarks were made, and that he did not violate FCC rules when he made racist and sexist remarks about the Rutgers women's basketball team. Meanwhile, four former FCC commissioners contacted by ABC News say they do not believe that the speech was actionable under current federal guidelines.
In a statement released by CBS in response to news stories about the impending lawsuit, CBS said that "We terminated Mr. Imus for cause. Based on the comments in question and relevant contract terms, we believe that the termination was appropriate and CBS would expect to prevail in any attempt by Mr. Imus to recover money for his actions." ...read more: here

5/05/2007 08:09:00 AM

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Sirenza On Tear - Will It Hold

May 4, 2007
Tyler Savery

Sirenza Microdevices (SMDI) has been on a tear lately. The company is a popular derivative play for those that follow satellite radio because they manufacture antennas for satellite radio units. In the past three months, the company has seen it's stock price move from the mid 7's to a close of $11.27 on Friday.

The spike in price today was driven by a quarterly report that was well received by the street. After hours, the company disclosed that CFO Charles R. Bland exercised options for 140,000 shares at $1.58 per share. He then sold all 140,000 shares for prices between $8.25 to $10.25 each. The transaction was conducted under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan. This plan allows a company insider to arrange sales in advance for such transactions even if he comes into possession of material nonpublic information.

Those that follow satellite radio will likely remember the deal that brought Mel Karmazin to Sirius also triggered prearranged sales for Joe Clayton.

Stock sales by insiders are often misunderstood and carry a negative perception. Many simply see the sale, and never consider what type of sale it was. Readers who are invested in SMDI have done quite well lately, and should watch for market reaction to this sale on Monday. There are many who trade on technicals, and despite a good quarterly report, that $1.00 gap up will have many wondering if it will be filled. Whether the prearranged insider sale will trigger a reaction is unknown.

Disclosure - No Position at time of writing

5/04/2007 10:49:00 PM

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Sirius Cash

April 4, 2007
Tyler Savery

It seems that the information supplied so far from the Sirius conference call has caused a bit of a stir and a bit of assumption making by many. What we here at SSG would suggest is that readers avoid making assumptions, and refer to the full 10Q when it is released. The report should be released soon.

In the mean-time, we thought it would be prudent to address a few items that seem to be main points of interest.


CASH REMAINING

It seems many people are applying the cash burn of Q1 to future quarters and coming to a conclusion that Sirius will need additional finances. Investors should refer to various cash flow analysis reports regarding the subject. Reputable firms such as Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and CitiGroup, etc. have detailed analyses, and have tracked this aspect well in the past.

WILL SIRIUS NEED TO RAISE ADDITIONAL FUNDS?

This topic falls in line with the above subject. The answer to this question will be answered in time, but there are many factors to consider. Revenues will be increasing as time passes. The structure of Sirius’ OEM deals are very cash flow friendly. At this point they are still expanding the installation rate. While this does involve an initial investment by Sirius, the structure of the deal has cash coming back to Sirius rather quickly. In my mind it is possible that Sirius will raise additional funds, but not a certainty. Investors need to run their own projection models to make a determination. Bear in mind also that there is a $100,000,000 credit facility for satellite expenditures. Another thing to look at is how the bonds are trading. Bonds are trading at par. Thus, the debt market does not seem to take any exception to Sirius' liquidity.

IS SIRIUS ALLOWED TO BORROW MONEY BY THE TERMS OF THE MERGER AGREEMENT?

While there are terms that prohibit either company from borrowing or diluting, there is also a Schedule 4.2g that is part of the agreement but not made public. The merger agreement references this, and references that Schedule 4.2g outlines terms of borrowing that can transpire. Reasonably speaking, both Sirius and XM would have weighed out their anticipated cash needs to get through the merger period, and also built in a reasonable cushion on top of that. This process is not rocket science, and you can rest assured that both companies gave deep consideration to their cash position and the merger agreement prior to entering into it. People that would suggest that either company is hamstrung by the merger agreement are quite simply not thinking very deeply.

ACCOUNTS PAYABLE AND ACCRUED EXPENSES

In a related matter, there seems to be a common error being made by people trying to analyze the financials without seeing the full balance sheet. Those that attempt this do so at their own risk. The common mistakes that I have seen is that people take items from the Q4 2006 balance sheet, and make an assumption that Sirius has not improved in this area. What they are failing to consider is the stock based compensation from last year will no longer be seen on the balance sheet. This will improve this item substantially, and unless you take the time to go through the financials of last year, it can easily be missed by those who simply took the information provided so far relative to cash in the Sirius conference call. I have seen several instances where people are coming to a conclusion that Sirius made no improvement in Accounts Payable or Accrued Expenses. I have seen the methodology they employed to come to that conclusion. I can tell you that there are factors such as that listed above that they are failing to consider. Readers should wait to see the financials.

DOOMSDAY LOOMING????

In looking at the cash flow model of Sirius and the financial statements there is no doomsday where $300,000,000 suddenly becomes due immediately. Many items will be an ongoing process……such as the OEM deals and how they are structured. Figure on a substantial portion always being committed to the OEM channel for future buildout (perhaps as much 6 to 9 months worth of inventory). Sirius subsidizes a radio, Sirius receives money for a subscription…..Sirius subsidizes a radio……Sirius receives money for a subscription and so no and so forth. Over time, the subscribers garnered begin to fuel the process to grow, or get to the bottom line. Basically this relationship allows for continued production, and can also fuel growth in the OEM channel. The retail channel has its own part in all of this as well, as do content deals such as the NFL, etc.

SO WHAT IS AN INVESTOR TO ASSUME?

Assume nothing. Wait for the financials to come out and look and compare the data. Too many people are jumping through hoops and coming up with bad analysis. Better to use the real numbers than to make them up.

Disclosure - Long SIRI - Long XM at time of writing.

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Cosmo Confessions On Sirius' Cosmo radio

May 4, 2007

500 Listeners To Tell All as Part of the Cosmo Radio Confessathon Exclusively on SIRIUS Satellite Radio

Listeners' jaw-dropping secrets to air on COSMO Radio

NEW YORK, May 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News) and Cosmopolitan magazine announced today that COSMO Radio will broadcast The COSMO Radio Confessathon featuring 500 real confessions based on the magazine's popular "Confessions" and "Guy Confessions" columns. From dating disasters and sex snafus to bad office behavior and the shocking things people say behind their friends' backs, hear the hilarious and scandalous messages that listeners have left on COSMO Radio's voicemail. Plus, COSMO Radio will give men and women the chance to spill their naughtiest secrets live on air during the broadcast.

Source: SIRIUS Satellite Radio

And that's not all. The COSMO Radio Confessathon will also include confessions from people whose jobs and lives make them privy to some extra juicy scoop-like a Miami socialite who regularly parties until sunrise, a celebrity trainer who knows what the stars really do to get red-carpet ready, and two backup dancers who have performed with some of the biggest acts in pop music. The COSMO Radio Confessathon will kick off on May 5, 2007 beginning at 2:00 pm ET and will continue until 500 confessions have aired.

Geared toward Cosmopolitan magazine's audience of fun, fearless females, COSMO Radio features smart relationship advice, beauty and fashion tips, health news and entertainment information similar to what appears in the magazine, a must-read for 17 million readers each month. COSMO Radio programming also includes live talk shows, music, daily astrological predictions, and segments that give listeners a peek inside the male mind.

Full Disclosure - Long Sirius at time of publication

5/04/2007 11:19:00 AM

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The Satellite Radio Trader: Why the weakness today?

Tied at the hip when it comes to stock movement, Sirius and XM are both weak today. With a lack of industry specific news, the main reason I am hearing is the biased, fact-deprived Motley Fool article. But such a poorly conceived article doesn't move stocks. The more likely reason is tied to GM's earnings. Although auto sales were less than robust, the real weakness was due to their exposure to the housing market through their GMAC financing unit.

GM Posts 90% Decline in Net,Hurt By Loss at GMAC
By JOHN D. STOLL and MIKE BARRISMay 3, 2007 Wall Street Journal

General Motors Corp. on Thursday reported a 90% decline in first-quarter profit, as housing-market weakness weighed on the auto maker's overall results and the company's core North American operations continued losing money despite cost cuts.
GM executives said that problems in the residential mortgage business at GMAC Financial Services, in which the auto maker owns a 49% stake, were a major factor in GM's first-quarter performance, which fell well short of analysts' expectations.
GM shares were down 3.1% at $31.45 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange...read more: here

5/03/2007 02:50:00 PM

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Is The Motley Fool Being Foolish?

May 3, 2007

The Motley Fool went through the trouble of posing a couple of questions and making a few statements about the playlists on satellite radio, and more specifically about a couple of songs or artists on particular channels.

From The Motley Fool Article:

“I definitely don't miss the insipid commercials I used to find on regular radio, but with 24 hours of airtime to fill up, you'd think the satellite companies could maybe mix up the playlists once in a while. How many times can Sirius' rock station Octane play Hinder's "Lips of an Angel"? And I think there's some Carpenters song played every 12 minutes on its Moving Easy band.”


Now lets address the Carpenters on Movin EZ:

I went ahead and pulled stats on the Carpenters. As hard as I tried, I could not find anywhere that a Carpenters song was played every 12 minutes. There are days where the Carpenters have a large place on the playlist, but there are also days when the Carpenters selection is not extensive, and I have yet to see a pattern where one can set their clock to the frequency of a song playing.

The fact of the matter is that there is more variety on satellite radio than a listener can obtain through virtually any other means. Especially in a format that gives live functionality.

5/03/2007 11:26:00 AM

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Motley Fool Thinks Satellite Will Fail

May 2, 2007

There was a point in time when people thought the automobile would fail.....the television.....cable television.....CD players.....DVD players, etc.

Here is the opinion of one Motley Fool writer.

Article Excerpt:

Say goodbye to satellite radio. As a driving force in entertainment, it's already past its heyday. Just as quickly as it exploded on the scene, satellite radio is becoming yesterday's news.
It's not because XM Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: XMSR) was able to add only half as many net new subscribers in the first quarter as it did last year. Nor is it because Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) added only half a million new subscribers based on the strength of some sketchy new-car production sales schedule (auto manufacturers account for the bulk of new subscribers). Forget that the number of people who buy their satellite radio receivers in-store fell by more than 50% this year and that the churn rates -- the number of customers the radio stations lose each month -- continue to climb.

No, it's something less statistical than all that, more ephemeral. Satellite radio will fail because it sucks.

I'm not an early adopter of most technology, and I got my first Sirius satellite receiver only when Howard Stern announced that he was leaving terrestrial radio.......MORE HERE

5/02/2007 08:40:00 PM

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April 2007 U.S. Auto Sales And SDARS Relationships

May 2, 2007

Sales are in for April 2007. The purpose of this information is to outline vehicle sales and OEM partners. The numbers represented do not equate to satellite radio installs. This information can be helpful in understanding potential insdtalls, as well as offer a glimpse of the overall OEM channel. By example, Sirius stated that their exclusive relationships will have about 34% penetration. If this holds true, then about 722,000 vehicles have been equipped with Sirius so far this year. For XM, GM is targeting 1,800,000 installs and Honda 850,000 for 2007. CLICK CHARTS TO ENLARGE

5/02/2007 04:28:00 PM

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Barrington Upgrades From Market Perform To Outperform

www.briefing.com, May 2
Upgraded
Sirius Satellite
SIRI
Mkt Perform » Outperform
$4.50

5/02/2007 02:12:00 PM

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Imus Plans Lawsuit

Imus won't go quietly
The talk show host has hired a top First Amendment lawyer, and an unusual clause in his contract could give him a $40 million payday, writes Fortune's Tim Arango.
By Tim Arango, Fortune writer
May 2 2007: 12:48 PM EDT

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Don Imus, the tousled and acerbic radio host whose racial remarks engendered a media storm that triggered a swift upending of his career, is not going away quietly even if the imbroglio has all but disappeared from the national conversation in the wake of the Virginia Tech massacre.
For Imus, who made a career out of operating in the murky space between sophomoric humor and high-brow political talk, there is the little matter of about $40 million left on his contract with CBS Radio - whose boss Les Moonves fired the shock jock on April 12. CBS' lawyers contend Imus was fired for cause and not owed the rest of the money....read more: here

5/02/2007 02:10:00 PM

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Merrill Lynch On Sirius

May 2, 2007

Decrease price objective to $5; Maintain 8.2mm YE07 subs

We are reducing our PO to $5 using a revised DCF with a lower ARPU from multi-subscriber discounts – data services/backseat TV should ultimately offset the blended ARPU impact from multi-user plans. While we maintain our 8.2mm YE07 sub forecast, we are increasing our 2Q07 estimate to 7.1mm from 6.9mm (482k net adds) given ongoing retail share gains and increased OEM penetration. Weexpect ‘07 SAC to decline 15.5% Y/Y to $96 (4G chipset) and churn to increase to 2.4% from 1.9% (self-paying churn of 1.7%). Our ‘07 revenue forecast is reduced $50mm to $950mm (+49%) given lower ARPU ($10.21 from $11.00), op ex is lowered $54mm to $1.5bb, resulting in a $348mm EBITDA deficit.

Increasing OEM penetration forecasts for 2007

SIRI is now available as a factory option in almost all DaimlerChrysler vehicles. Chrysler is targeting factory installation in >40% of MY07 cars, Mercedes isplanning 80% of its 2007 production (MLe 46% blended DCX penetration), and Ford seeks to double the number of autos shipped with SIRI in FY07 (MLe >1mm or 63% penetration). SIRI expects >35% penetration in ‘07 with its exclusive auto partners. Given these NY Auto Show updates, we increased our ’07 gross OEM adds to 2.3mm from 2.1mm. As OEMs manage inventory better, SIRI’s unactivated OEM subs as a percent of total trend below the FY06 level of <10%.

1Q Revenue short of MLe on lower ARPU

SIRI ended 1Q07 with 6.6mm subs. ARPU (less rebates/advertising) of $10.10 was below MLe while SAC of $104 was higher than MLe $85. Revenue of $204mm was $27mm short of MLe (ARPU and ad sales below MLe). Total op ex(excluding non-cash expense) was $339mm, $18mm above MLe, largely due to the higher SAC, resulting in an $84mm EBITDA deficit – $47mm higher than MLe

5/02/2007 11:28:00 AM

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Wedbush Morgan Reiterates Buy for Sirius

May 2, 2007

Sirius Satellite - SIRI - Buy - $5 » $4

5/02/2007 10:41:00 AM

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Wedbush Note On sirius

May 2, 2007

Sirius Satellite: Favorable quarter not enough to offset longer-term challenges - Wedbush

SIRI reported Q1 results better than expected, led by subscriber additions. Although SIRI is continuing to evolve into a more financially driven story, the rate of consumer adoption remains the greatest area of focus, especially since the co still needs considerable growth to justify its present valuation levels. On that note, firm says SIRI reported net subscriber additions of 556k, besting firm's 496k net adds est. Firm believes the subscriber growth, relative to expectations, came from two areas—an increase in multi-family subscriptions and OEM demand. The results were naturally down from last year's 761k net adds, given a diminished Howard Stern effect and a larger replacement churn burden. Nevertheless, relative to the competition, firm notes Sirius' Q1 gross additions were 989k, well ahead of XM's 868k.

5/02/2007 10:40:00 AM

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UBS Update On Sirius

May 2, 2007

From Briefing.com

Sirius Satellite: UBS believes SIRI demonstrates demand still exists (2.90 ) -Update-

UBS notes SIRI's 1Q07 results highlighted that demand for satellite radio still exists. Firm believes they will start to see a second leg of subscriber growth in the second half of 2007. Firm believes the gross adds will continue to grow throughout the year and as churn stabilizes net add growth will recoup by YE or beginning of 2008. Firm notes that SIRI will maintain market share lead throughout 2007 and 2008.

5/02/2007 10:38:00 AM

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Sansa Connect At $15/Month, Costs More Than Satellite Radio

An iPod Rival With an Edge
Music Player Uses Wi-Fi Connection; No Search on Device
May 2, 2007; Page D10, WSJ, Mossberg Solution

Since its introduction in 2001, Apple Inc.'s iPod has taken over the portable-music-player industry, gaining steam each year and rolling over competitors one after the other. Its simple interface, navigational scroll wheel and iTunes software program make it a pleasure to use -- and impossible for other companies to beat. To stay fresh, Apple regularly introduces iPods with thinner builds, lighter weights, longer battery lives, brighter screens and new functions.
But despite improvements on the original iPod, none has enabled interaction with other players or wireless Internet connectivity -- two features that competitors are eager to offer so as to chip away at iPod's huge market share. Microsoft Corp.'s Zune music player, for example, was shipped with built-in Wi-Fi, enabling song sharing -- albeit limited -- with nearby Zunes.
Apple is about to bring out its own wireless music player in the iPhone, which combines a full iPod with Wi-Fi and cellphone connectivity. But so far, it's unclear whether you'll be able to use the iPhone to download or share music.
This week, I tested San-Disk's $250 Sansa Connect player, a collaborative effort from SanDisk Corp., Yahoo Inc.'s Yahoo Music and Zing Systems Inc. that comes with built-in Wi-Fi for more than just limited sharing with other players. Unlike the iPod, which must be plugged into a computer to load new music, Sansa Connect can play and download content on the player whenever a Wi-Fi network is available, including photos, Internet Radio, songs from Yahoo's music store or recommendations from friends....read more: here

5/02/2007 06:44:00 AM

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WSJ: Merger Could Send Shares Surging

If Sirius-XM Happens ...
Merger Faces Long Odds,But a Deal Breakthrough Could Send Shares Surging
May 2, 2007; Page C12, Wall St Journal

There's good reason to suspect the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio Holdings is as good as dead. Both companies' licenses specifically forbid them from combining. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin and several senators have stated they are skeptical that the public would be well-served by a merger.
Management at each company remains optimistic that the merger will go through. But investors think otherwise, and have marked down both stocks.
This looks like an overreaction. Little about their businesses has changed since the merger announcement in mid-February. Yet both stocks are trading below their preannouncement levels. Sirius has lost 21% of its market capitalization and XM 17%. This decline means investors are being granted a free option on merger-related savings.
These are large. Administrative costs can be cut, research budgets can be slashed and costly wars over radio talent avoided. It would also create one large audience -- which is music to advertisers' ears. The cost savings would be about $1.3 billion a year, according to Lehman Brothers. Those savings will translate into higher earnings, and that income would boost the value of the companies to shareholders by about $10 billion, or about $2 billion more than the companies' combined market value now.
Of course, if regulators object, none of these savings will appear. But the market is already pricing in a zero percent chance of a merger going through. So failure shouldn't hurt much, if at all. On the other hand, an unexpected success would really send these stocks into orbit....read more: here

5/02/2007 05:05:00 AM

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Mercury Gets Sirius Again

5/01/2007 10:23:00 PM

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Morgan Stanley On Sirius' Q1

May 1, 2007

Morgan Stanley: Net Adds In Line, Pre-Mkt EBITDA Modestly Below

Net adds for SIRI of 556K were in line with our expectations. In particular, other than a slight skew further toward OEM than we had expected, subscriber trends were broadly in line with our expectations.

SIRI reiterated its full year ’07 guidance of more than 8 mm subs and $95 SAC. SIRI 1Q results came in broadly in line with estimates led by slightly better sub growth from OEM which helped to offset continued weak retail growth (gross adds down ~40% YoY) in the quarter.

Retail gross adds were down roughly 40% YoY, we estimate. Beginning in 2Q07, we expect these YoY declines to moderate significantly. SIRI continues to dominate the retail/after-market category from a market-share perspective.

5/01/2007 10:08:00 PM

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Lehman Brothers says "Good In-Line Q1 Results"

May 1, 2007

Lehman Brothers: Good, In Line 1Q07 Results

Subscriber net adds above forecast while revenue was below forecast on below-expected ARPU.
Net of option expense EBITDA loss larger than est due to below-forecast revenue but operating expenses in line, reflecting financial discipline.

Expect stock to trade up as we believe investment community's focus remains on subscriber growth, but continue to believe shares will be range-bound over intermediate term as OEM acceleration is

2H07, 2008 story & merger uncertainty remains.

5/01/2007 10:07:00 PM

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Cowen and Company Calls sirius' Q1 An "Excellent Quarter

May 1, 2007

Cowen and Company: Q1 Results: Excellent Quarter; Best Executor; FCF on the Way

Conclusion: SIRI reported excellent Q1 results, with 556K net adds beating consensus by 13%, and our est. by 6%. We continue to view SIRI as an outstanding executer. We believe SIRI shares can outperform the market by 80% over the next year based on FCF potential, regardless of merger approval.

Excellent Subscriber Results.

Good, In-Line Financials.

Guidance Reiterated. Management reiterated guidance of revenue of $1B, YE subs of 8+MM, SAC of $95, Churn of 2.2-2.4%. We believe these metrics are within reach.

Operating Leverage Demonstrates FCF Potential.

FCF to Drive Outperformance Regardless of Merger Outcome. While merger concerns may limit near-term appreciation, we expect FCF pot’l to drive outperformance. We continue to believe SIRI shares can outperform the market by 80%+ over the next year.

5/01/2007 10:04:00 PM

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Morgan Joseph Calls Sirius' Q1 A "Mixed Quarter"

May 1, 2007

Morgan Joseph: Mixed Quarter; Strong Subscriber Additions, Though Costly; Hold

Sirius puts up mixed results. Revenues and EBITDA of $204.0mm and ($108.3mm) were below our $207.7mm and ($86.1mm) expectations. Revenues grew 61.1% Y/Y. EPS was ($0.10) vs. our ($0.09) estimate. SAC (subscriber acquisition cost) came in at $104.40 vs. our $127.00 estimate and ARPU (average revenue per user) fell 3.1% during the quarter vs. the year-ago period.

We also note that churn was 2.3% (vs. 1.8% a year ago).
Subscriber additions are the quarter's bright spot. The company had very strong subscriber net additions, at 556,490 vs. our 425,000 estimate, to end the quarter with a total of 6.58mm subscribers. While retail remained light (only 192,978 net additions), OEM began to take more of the focus, with the company adding 364,674 net new OEM
subscribers.

OEM announcements highlight growing long-term momentum.

Sirius confidence with merger remains.

Guidance remains unchanged; lowering numbers on higher costs.

5/01/2007 10:03:00 PM

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Oppenheimer - sirius' Q1 Largely Positive

May 1, 2007

Oppenheimer: SIRI: 1Q07 Results Largely Positive

- Although our target is under review, we rate shares of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. a Buy due to the long-term favorable prospects for satellite radio growth across both retail and auto-installed market. While SIRI's stock appears expensive by most conventional metrics, adjusting the company's enterprise value to revenue multiple by its 2004-08E revenue compound annual growth rate reveals a PEG-type ratio below the cable operators.

- SIRI reported largely positive 1Q results this morning albeit a bit mixed as net adds beat our estimates, but financial metrics disappointed slightly. We maintain our Buy rating on the SIRI shares.

SIRI maintained 2007 guidance across all metrics

5/01/2007 10:01:00 PM

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Latino Coalition Urges FCC to Approve Merger

May 1, 2007

The Latino Coalition has written a letter to the FCC urging the commission to approve the proposed merger between Sirius and XM satellite Radio.

The letter cites diverse programming and lists several competitors such as terrestrial radio, I-Pods as well as the opportunities for additional channels in place of duplicitous programming. Click the letter to enlarge.

5/01/2007 09:55:00 PM

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Sirius 2007 Subscriber Figures

May 1, 2007

Today in the conference call the issue of OEM installation penetration arose. Sirius stated that they anticipate being in about 34% of the production of their exclusive partners in 2007. What exactly does this translate to?

Well, in 2006, the total vehicle production of Sirius’ exclusive OEM partners was about 6,795,615 vehicles. Thus, on a simple percentage basis, it would seem reasonable that if production remains similar in 2007, that we can anticipate about 2,310,500 Sirius equipped vehicles to hit the road this year.

This represents substantial growth in the OEM channel, and would seem to illustrate that Sirius’ end of year subscriber guidance of 8,000,000 is well within reach even considering the project churn of between 2.2% and 2.4%.

For followers of the sector that were worried about growth, the 2,300,000 million gross additions from the OEM channel coupled with about 2,000,000 gross additions from retail give a total gross addition of 4,300,000. Add this to the years beginning subscriber number of 6,100,000 and you have 10,400,000 subscribers before accounting for churn. This gives Sirius a margin of about 2,400,000 deactivations for the year. Given the guidance numbers, there is room to spare for Sirius, which needs 1,400,000 additional net subscribers to hit the 8,000,000 mark.

5/01/2007 09:46:00 PM

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WSJ Comments On Sirius Earnings

Sirius Posts Narrower Loss On Subscription, Revenue Growth
By HENRY SANDERSONMay 1, 2007 10:47 a.m., The Wall Street Journal

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., which is seeking approval to merge with rival XM Satellite Radio Holding Inc., reported a narrower first-quarter loss Tuesday, but weak growth of subscribers at the retail level raised concerns about the penetration of satellite radio.
Sirius, a subscriber-based radio service whose programming includes sports, music and shock jock Howard Stern, said it added 556,490 new subscribers during the quarter, compared with 761,187 a year ago. The year-ago number was boosted by the new arrival of Mr. Stern.
However, the acquisition of subscribers at the retail level fell to 193,000 from 535,000 in the year-ago period, J.P. Morgan analyst Barton Crockett wrote in a note to clients.
Churn, the rate of monthly customer losses, was 2.3% in the quarter compared with 1.8% a year before, which raised concern among analysts, even though the first-quarter loss was narrower than what most of Wall Street expected.
Sirius said it had a first-quarter loss of $144.8 million, or 10 cents a share, compared with a loss of $458.5 million, or 33 cents a share, a year ago. Excluding stock-based compensation expense, the company said its loss narrowed to $120.5 million, or eight cents a share, from $174 million, or 13 cents a share.
The company said revenue rose to $204 million from $126.7 million a year earlier. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a loss of 11 cents a share on revenue of $212 million.
For 2007, the New York company said it expects 2007 revenue to approach $1 billion with more than eight million subscribers. It expects to ramp up its deals with major auto makers which will feature Sirius satellite radios in their cars. The company's OEM channel accounted for a large bulk of subscriber additions in the first quarter.
"Overall, our exclusive OEM partners are dramatically ramping [up] the number of vehicles in which Sirius service is included," Chief Executive Mel Karmazin said during a conference call with analysts.
The company said that, along with other auto makers, last week Mercedes, a unit of DaimlerChrysler AG, announced that Sirius will be installed in 80% of its cars this year, and 90% next year. The company also said that Ford Motor Co.'s Mercury division will start a two-month national promotion featuring Sirius in its models. It also expects Ford to double the number of vehicles shipped with Sirius radios from nearly 600,000 at the moment.
However, Banc of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby said Sirius counts subscribers at the time of vehicle production rather the time of sale, which is less indicative of true consumer demand.
"This suggests the biggest boost to the subscriber base in the first quarter has come from "car-lot" subscriptions," he wrote in a research note.
XM Satellite, a Washington company whose radio show hosts include Oprah Winfrey and shock jocks Opie and Anthony, agreed in February to be acquired by Sirius in a $13.6 billion deal, with Sirius paying 4.6 shares for each XM share.
Sirius Chief Executive Mel Karmazin said Tuesday he is "confident" that the merger will be completed by the end of 2007.
The proposed merger has attracted regulatory scrutiny as lawmakers in Congress have questioned whether a union of the only two U.S. satellite-radio service providers would be good for consumers. While Federal Communications Commission rules now bar such a merger, the companies are seeking approval from the FCC and the Justice Department's antitrust division....read more: here

5/01/2007 01:25:00 PM

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Subscriber Numbers

May 1, 2007

Well, we now have the subscriber numbers for both Sirius and XM for Q1 2007.

INTERESTING NOTES:

- Sirius garnered 66% of NET additions

- Overall Market Share is now 55% XM and 45% SIRI

- The gap in subscribers is virtually identical to 3 years ago at 1,332,000. The maximum gap in subscribers was 2,861,000 in Q3 of 2005

5/01/2007 12:38:00 PM

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Sirius Reports Q1 2007 Results

SIRIUS Satellite Radio Reports Strong First Quarter 2007 Results
- First Quarter Revenue Increases 61% to a Record $204 Million - Subscribers Increase 556,490 to Approximately 6.6 Million - Satellite Radio Leader with 66% Segment Share of Net Subscriber Additions - Net Loss Improves 68% Over Last Year - 2007 Guidance Reiterated
NEW YORK, May 1, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network

SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) today announced strong first quarter 2007 results, including a 61% increase in revenue to a record $204 million from the year ago quarter, strong first quarter subscriber growth of 556,490 driving ending subscribers to approximately 6.6 million and accounting for 66% of satellite radio segment share. "2007 is off to a great start," said Mel Karmazin, CEO of SIRIUS. "SIRIUS once again led the satellite radio segment in net subscriber additions marking the sixth straight quarter of leadership. At the same time, we increased revenue by 61% and reduced our net loss by 68% from last year's first quarter. We are very pleased with our strong operating results and we are on track to meet our 2007 guidance."
"SIRIUS is excited about the pending merger with XM. The audio entertainment market has changed dramatically since we received our licenses in 1997 and consumers now have a dizzying and ever-expanding array of options to choose from. We believe the merger makes sense for consumers and stockholders and we are confident that the transaction will be completed by the end of 2007."
SIRIUS ended first quarter of 2007 with 6,581,045 subscribers, up 61% from 4,077,747 subscribers at the end of the year-ago quarter. During first quarter of 2007, SIRIUS added 556,490 net subscribers consisting of 192,978 from the retail channel and 364,674 from the OEM channel. In first quarter of 2007, SIRIUS captured 66% of satellite radio segment share, marking the sixth consecutive quarter for leadership...read more: here

5/01/2007 07:07:00 AM

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