Wednesday, May 23, 2007

A deeper Look at April NPD

May 23, 2007
Tyler Savery

NPD sales are in, and while the year over year comparisons are down, there are many things to consider.

1. Retail sales will slow with a wider OEM penetration. If you already have a satellite radio in your car, you have no need to buy from retail.

2. The year over year comparison for April shows and improvement over the same comparisons for March, February, and January. There was a point that YOY comparisons were off by over 40%. The fact is that this is the best YOY performance so far this year.

3. April is traditionally a slow retail month. With no new products, and rebates trimmed back, there simply is not a huge push in April.

4. NPD is not capturing the same percentage of the Gross retail number as they were last year. Last year, on average, NPD was capturing between 60% and 70% of the overall sectors GROSS retail number. This year the trend seems to be closer to 50%. This happens in part because retailers that do not participate in NPD such as Wal Mart are penetrating into the SDARS retail market.

What people need to consider along with retail is what is happening in the OEM channel, and other factors. Simply stated, while at face value the NPD data seems to be trending down, it is not necessarily the case, and in point of fact, SDARS overall market penetration seems to be quite healthy.

5/23/2007 06:11:00 PM

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  • All good points. You can add to that list that a year ago, there was still some of the Stern effect carrying over into the 1st and 2nd quarters. That effect obviously wained as the year progressed and we should see even better comparisons going forward.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at May 23, 2007 7:03 PM  

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