Bridge Ratings: Not An Accurate Indicator Of Activations

October 3, 2006

Bridge Ratings' latest survey (Sept 27) indicates "softening" of satellite radio sales at retail but, note, this is not an accurate indicator of ACTIVATIONS. As SSG has pointed out in previous posts, Bridge does not take into account activations at the OEM level. As auto manufacturers jump on the SatRad bandwagon, OEM installs increase, thus, the number of sales at retail will be affected. Additionally, satellite radio was dealt a setback over the past few months...inventory was constricted due to the FCC modulator problems. If retailers don't have the product, sales are sure to slump! These NAB initiated FCC issues have recently been resolved and new hardware is now re-entering the pipeline.

Another thing to note: Bridge Ratings' estimates for Sirius year end subscribers are at 6.5 million, which is in excess of company estimates of 6.3 million (management has already raised this number a few times), so it doesn't seem like Sirius sales are softening.

Bridge Ratings Consumer Trends: Satellite Radio Q3 Subscriber Trending
Updated Wednesday September 27, 2006,www.bridgeratings.com

Retail Maintains Soft Activity
Bridge Ratings' trending of Satellite Radio subscribers continues through 2006. The purpose of this on-going study is to analyze consumer preferences related to satellite service brand and satellite radio in general.
Bridge Ratings interviews consumers at retail outlets who have purchased Satellite radio. Consumers are interviewed whenentering audio departments to determine their purchase intent and then again post-purchase. By matching pre-purchase interest against actual purchase, we are able to determine: a) brand potency and b) brand awareness-to-purchase effectiveness, i.e. the brand'sability to convert awareness to purchase. In recent weeks programming options and equipment style and benefits have been taking a stronger position as the impetus for the purchase decision with Sirius more consistently being sited for its programming content and equipment as motives for purchase...

...Based on current pacing results and our continuing in-store interviews, Bridge Ratings has further reduced its projections and now estimates that XM total subscriber count will end the year at 7.9 million and 6.5 million for Sirius. Projections are updated quarterly. As of this date, Bridge Ratings estimates that original industry projections of the increase in total 2006 satellite subscriptions of 6 million will be closer to 5.4 million with Sirius maintaining a 60% share this year with 3.4 million new subscribers compared to XM's 2.0 million. By year's end, satellite radio's 14.4 million subscribers will represent approximately 5% of the U.S. population....READ MORE: HERE

10/02/2006 08:48:00 PM

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