An Aggregation Of Analysts' Comments On Sirius Q2

Analysts' Comments On Sirius Q2 Start To Roll In

This column will be updated throughout the day...

Morgan Joseph (http://www.briefing.com/, Aug 1):SIRI Sirius Satellite: Health of business shown through ability to execute in weak consumer environmentMorgan Joseph believes that SIRI remains the best positioned satellite radio provider following the co's solid 2Q06 results solid guidance. Surprisingly, firm believes that SIRI increased its Y06 subscriber guidance to 6.3 mln from 6.2 mln on the health of its business. Firm believes SIRI's ability to execute in a relatively weak consumer environment, when its primary competitor continues to stumble, reflects on the health of its business. Firm believes this momentum should continue heading into 2H06 and expect increasing original equipment manufacturer contribution going forward. Firm believes that SIRI remains sound operationally and it has been able to grab considerable satellite radio market share on the strength of its offering.

Pacific Crest (http://www.theflyonthewall/, Aug 1):Sirius Satellite Radio-SIRI subscriber estimates lowered, prefer XMSR@PACS The firm is lowering their subscriber estimates for SIRI due to retail weakness and continues to prefer XMSR.

Standard & Poors (http://www.businessweek.com,aug/ 1, 2006)Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI ) : Reiterates 5 STARS (strong buy) Analyst: Tuna Amobi, CPA and CFA After pre-announced strong second quarter net adds of 640,460, the second quarter loss of 16 cents before a penny one-time charge, vs. a 13 cents loss is in line with our estimate and a penny wider than the Street's. We see momentum at retail and Original Equipment Manufacturer channels. We note subscriber acquisition costs were a bit higher than we expected, but with in-line churn and potentially higher pricing power. Sirius Satellite Radio slightly raises its 2006 year-end subscriber target to 6.3 million from 6.2 million, potentially suggesting it sees no material product shipment delays due to a lingering Federal Communications Commission probe on emission limits for certain plug-and-plays. We will update.

Reuters Research, Getting SiriusBy Marc Gerstein, Director of Research, www.reuters.com 02 Aug 2006Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. <SIRI.O> reminded Wall Street this week just how much of a subscriber-growth machine shock-jock Howard Stern's new home really is. In contrast to XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. <XMSR.O>, which tempered growth expectations last week, Sirius raised the bar, saying it expects its customer count to grow to 6.3 million by year-end, a shade higher than its previous 6.2 million target and up from nearly 4.4 million on June 30...(Read more: HERE)

Barrington Research (http://www.jagnotes.com/, Aug 2)SIRI: Outperform - The firm noted they continue its OUTPERFORM recommendation on SIRI.While the stock has traded down and remained characteristically volatile, we continue our positive view on thepotential for satellite radio and feel that Sirius' current momentum makes it a more attractive way to play this sector at the present time than XM.

Morgan Keegan, (Live In Play, http://www.briefing.com/, Aug 2, 08:57)SMDI Sirenza Micro: SIRI report appears beneficial for SMDI satellite antenna biz - Morgan Keegan (9.27 )Morgan Keegan believes that SIRI's results and mgmt's healthy outlook bode well for SMDI, which supplies SIRI with satellite radio antennae. SIRI is an above 10% customer for the SMDI segment of Sirenza, which comprises roughly two-thirds of the co's revenue base.

Stifel, (the flyonthewall.com 08/02/06. 7:31 AM)Sirius Satellite-SIRI quarter solid, OEM improvement encouraging-Buy@STFL (Stifel believes retail is not slowing as fast as the NPD data suggests sincethe data excludes Wal-Mart. $6.00 target maintained.

Sanders Morris Harris (http://www.theflyonthewall.com/, Aug 2, 2006, 9:17 AM)Sirius Satellite Radio-SIRI reiterate Hold, still cautious on costs@SMMI

Merrill Lynch (http://www.theflyonthewall.com/, Aug 2, 9:25 AM)Sirius-SIRI tgt to $7 from $9 due to mkt conditions, maintain Buy@MLCO

Morgan Stanley (Realtimetraders.com, 06/02, 11:31 AM) Morgan Stanley Reiterates Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) At Overweight With $8 Price TargetMorgan Stanley Is Cutting Sirius Satellite Radio 2006 Estimate To -0.88 From -0.82Morgan Stanley Is Lowering Sirius Satellite Radio 2007 Estimate To -0.45 From-0.44

RBC Capital Markets (via Forbes.com,Mary Crane) Analyst Questions Sirius Lead Over XM, 08.02.06, 11:42 AM ETSirius Satellite is rapidly adding subscribers, but David Bank of RBC is maintaining his view that its valuation lead over rival XM Satellite Radio is unsustainable. The satellite radio broadcaster posted a loss in the second quarter of $237.8 million, wider than the year-ago deficit of $177.5 million, but it recorded a 158% year-over-year increase in subscriber additions, to 4.7 million, for the three month period. XM, buy contrast, has about 7 million subscribers, yet investors accord it an enterprise value of only $3.6 billion, while the trading price of Sirius stock plus its long-term debt is about $6.2 billion.Sirius Satellite, which signed shock jock Howard Stern and is rolling out an option for listeners to hear its broadcasts over the Internet, has recently had a higher public profile than XM, perhaps a reason for the higher market value. Yet XM has a bigger share of the factory-installed car radios and more clout with manufacturers, as well as more overall users.It cost Sirius about $131 in marketing and other costs to add each of those subscribers and the company experienced a 1.8% turnover rate in the quarter, but Bank said these were in line with Street expectations. The company’s modest increase in estimated subscribers at the end of the year, 6.3 million, up from an earlier 6.2 million, also was within expectations, Bank added.On the positive side, Bank said Sirius peformed well in the quarter, despite a government inquiry into some of its portable receivers, which retransmit satellite signals to car radios. The Federal Communications Commission had alleged that the units do not meet its emissions standards. All in all, Bank maintained a "sector perform" rating on Sirius and $6 price target. It rates XM "outperform."

Goldman Sachs, Aug 02, 2006 2Q06 as expected, execution key in 2H06Sirius aligned targeted 2006E subs with consensus expectations by raising estimates to 6.3 mn from over 6.2 mn previously. The slightly higher sub target led Sirius to now expect 2006 revenue of $615 mn versus $600 mn, an unchanged EBITDA loss of $565mn and with other shifts, a greater use of FCF at ($500 mn) versus ($480 mn) as of the Mays 1Q conference call and ($370 mn) as of Februarys 4Q 2005 conference call. Sirius targets imply $400 mn of incremental revenue while EBITDA is expected to remain flat relative to 2005; highlighting the rising costs of growth as industry net additions did not grow y/y in 2Q06. Incorporating the lower cash flow expectations and now including new satellite capex in 2008, we have lowered our DCF-driven SIRI price target to $4 from $4.50.

8/02/2006 09:18:00 PM

SSG Has Merged. You Can Read All Of The Latest SSG Content By Clicking Here

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

SSG is not a Financial Advisor. Read Disclosure: HERE

--------------------------------------------------------