Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Sirius 2007 Subscriber Figures

May 1, 2007

Today in the conference call the issue of OEM installation penetration arose. Sirius stated that they anticipate being in about 34% of the production of their exclusive partners in 2007. What exactly does this translate to?

Well, in 2006, the total vehicle production of Sirius’ exclusive OEM partners was about 6,795,615 vehicles. Thus, on a simple percentage basis, it would seem reasonable that if production remains similar in 2007, that we can anticipate about 2,310,500 Sirius equipped vehicles to hit the road this year.

This represents substantial growth in the OEM channel, and would seem to illustrate that Sirius’ end of year subscriber guidance of 8,000,000 is well within reach even considering the project churn of between 2.2% and 2.4%.

For followers of the sector that were worried about growth, the 2,300,000 million gross additions from the OEM channel coupled with about 2,000,000 gross additions from retail give a total gross addition of 4,300,000. Add this to the years beginning subscriber number of 6,100,000 and you have 10,400,000 subscribers before accounting for churn. This gives Sirius a margin of about 2,400,000 deactivations for the year. Given the guidance numbers, there is room to spare for Sirius, which needs 1,400,000 additional net subscribers to hit the 8,000,000 mark.

5/01/2007 09:46:00 PM

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