Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Holiday Shopping Perking Up

Holiday Shopping Outlook More Jolly
Morgan Stanley, Barron's, Dec 12

OUR HOLIDAY SHOPPING SURVEY (conducted in late November 2006) predicts a stronger holiday season than November sales or our retail sales lead indicator predict.
Our lead indicator, up until last month, had been suggesting a modest 100 basis-point deceleration. Consumers in our survey appeared more optimistic, suggesting that retailer claims that weather and gift card growth are good excuses for lackluster sales results in November.
Spending intentions improved versus 2005, with the ratio of those planning to spend more versus less up anywhere from two to eight percentage points. Electronics leads intentions with average overall spend up 9% and 75% of heavy spenders expecting to spend more in 2006 than 2005.
For those avoiding retail due to short-term demand concerns, our survey should help alleviate those fears. While high gasoline prices are a reason to spend less for 24% of respondents, that figure is down from 40% a year ago. Inflation is the number-one worry with 30% of consumers calling rising prices a headwind....read more: here
posted by ssg5