Monday, November 06, 2006
XM SIMPLY IMPRESSIVE
November 6, 2006
A quick note comparing SSG estimates with actuals.
I am very pleased to say that XM beat my estimates on the most important metrics. This is great news, and the financial metrics should prove to be the subject of the day.
SSG estimated Gross OEM to be between 520,000 and 540,000
XM came in at 552,507
SSG estimated NET OEM to be between 200,000 and 230,000
XM came in at 217,291
SSG estimated Retail Gross to be 350,000 to 370,000
XM came in at 315,500
SSG estimated NET retail to be between 70,000 and 90,000
XM came in at 68,711
SSG estimated churn/deactivations to be 1.9% and in the neighborhood of 600,000
XM came in at 1.82% and 582,005
SSG estimated an OEM conversion rate of 51%
XM came in at 52.2%
SSG estimated Family Plan to be 22% of base
XM came in at 21.2%
SSG estimated subscriber guidance of between 7.8 and 8.0 million
XM came in at 7.7 to 7.9 million
SSG anticipated revenues of $233 million
XM came in at $240 million
SSG estimated SAC at $65
XM came in at $60
SSG estimated CPGA at $108
XM came in at $93
SSG estimated a loss of 51 cents per share (considering refinancing activities)
XM came in at 32 cents per share
We obviously underestimated the extent and speed at which Nate Davis was able to trim costs and hold the line or improve on expenses. Our SAC, and CPGA models were blown out of the water. XM’s quarter was very, very impressive on the financial metrics, and investors can have a renewed confidence in the satellite radio business model. Again, congratulations to XM Satellite Radio.
11/06/2006 09:13:00 AM
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