Inital Q3 Metrics - Sirius

November 8, 2006

The Sirius Conference Call is now complete, and it was a great call for not only Sirius but the sector as a whole. Both Sirius and XM reported that losses narrowed, and for satellite radio investors, that is welcomed news. Q3 2006 could well go down as the quarter at which narrower losses will be reported by both companies going forward.

We provided estimates prior to the call, and wanted to take a minute to see how we did.

SUBSCRIBERS

Sirius reported Gross subs of 732,406 vs. our estimate of 715,000

Sirius reported NET Retail of 205,899 vs. our estimate of 181,000

Sirius reported NET OEM of 236,464 vs. our 3estimate of 260,000

We will try to identify metrics such as family plan percentage, etc.

CHURN

Sirius reported a fully loaded churn rate of 2.0% vs. our estimate of 1.9%.

Sirius stated self paying churn was in the 1.6% to 1.7% range vs. our estimate of 1.3%. This would seem to indicate a better than anticipated OEM churn rate.

REVENUE

Sirius reported revenue of $167,100,000 vs. out estimate of $172,000,000

EPS

Sirius reported a loss of 12 cents per share vs. our estimate of a loss of 13 cents

SAC

Sirius reported SAC of $114 vs. our estimate of $127. We see this as a very positive development. We typically expect higher SAC costs in Q3 because Sirius builds radios during Q3 that will be sold in Q4. The FM modulator issue may well have impacted the build rate, and we see little problem for Sirius hitting year end guidance.

More as we look deeper into the results.

11/08/2006 09:33:00 AM

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